Daily write-up - Apr 12th (Aintree Day 1)

It’s the opening day of the 3 day Grand National meeting at Aintree (there is also NH racing at Taunton and Limerick - if anyone is interested !).

I know that I keep on going on about it – and I apologise for that – but the weather and its impact on the ground, is driving me mad !

Bad enough we lost the 2 weeks prior to Cheltenham – and Cheltenham itself was significantly impacted by the rain: it’s barely relented since, resulting in very little of interest in the subsequent 4 weeks.

I can’t believe that the situation is continuing into Aintree – but it is !

There has been plenty of rain over the past few days – and I’ve no idea how the ground will ride this afternoon.

The official going description is ‘good to soft on the Mildmay course; soft on the National course’ – but that’s not really backed up by the going stick – and there was further rain over night.

Listening to the various jockeys (or reading what they say), they are suggesting very soft ground: however, I’ve also read from different sources, that the ground will be lot better than expected !

I honestly have no idea what to make of it – and feel the only sensible thing is to watch a few races and make up my own mind.

Ofcourse, that makes it a bit tricky to tip in advance.

I’ve not opted out completely – but I just can’t bring myself to get heavily involved when there is so much uncertainty…

In truth, Aintree is a tricky meeting to call at the best of times: as you are faced with horses who have run at Cheltenham – and those who bypassed it.

And of those who ran, there is another subset of those who ran well (possibly enduring a hard race) – and those who ran poorly.

Maybe now’s a good time to get into Bookmaking !

I issued a tip last week (one I’m quite happy with !) – a couple more yesterday evening – and another two this morning – but that’s it.

The ground is likely to be so key with most of the races, I feel a watching brief has to be the order of the day.

Hopefully things will be a little clearer come tomorrow…

Here is the rationale for the tips that I have issued – plus my thoughts on the days other races at Aintree…

Aintree

1:45 Be prepared to read this quite a few times (!) – but I think the state of the ground could be key to the outcome of this race…

On decent ground, then I think Brain Power is the one to beat (assuming he is fully recovered from his Cheltenham exertions !) – but if the ground is soft, he will be vulnerable…

Certainly, his apparent main rival, Cyrname, has a marked preference for soft ground – which is why betting in the race without knowing the state of the ground, is a risky.

In fairness, Brain Power can probably handle soft-ish ground (so may be able to get away with some cut) – but if it’s heading towards heavy, he will struggle.

Heavy ground wouldn’t suit Modus either – though in truth, he’s probably not quite good enough, regardless of ground conditions.

Of the other 3 runners: then it’s hard to know what to make of Finians Oscar.
He has looked a world beater – but has also looked limited.

I suspect he is a good horse – but he’s got plenty to prove and certainly couldn’t be backed with confidence.

The mare, Renes Girl, should have no issue with the ground – and is quite interesting in receipt of weight.

She likes to race prominently – and that could mess things up for Cyrname (who likes to do the same) – and help Brain Power.

Calino Dairy is the other runner in the race – and whilst he has little obvious chance on form, the fact he is even running, strikes me as interesting…

He’s trained by Henry de Bromhead – and I wouldn’t associate him with ‘tilting at windmills’.

You can’t make a case for him on the form book (he is rated 17lb inferior to Brian Power) – but he jumped very well when winning 2 novice chases in the autumn and if he’s back in that kind of form (and I suspect he will be) then he could easily outrun his dismissive odds (33/1)

2:20 This doesn’t look the strongest of races, with the 2 Nicky Henderson trained runners: Apples Shakira and We have a Dream, dominating the market.

Both obviously have a chance – but both also have question marks over them…

In the case of Apples Shakira, it is whether she will be able to bounce back from a slightly disappointing run at Cheltenham, last time.

In fairness, I don’t think she ran too badly in the Triumph (even tho I was hoping she would run a bit better !).

She was too free, early in the race – and as a consequence, didn’t run to her optimum.

She is fitted with a hood today, to help her settle – and if that has the desired effect  - and assuming she’s over her Cheltenham exertions, then she is likely to be the one to beat.

Her stablemate We have a Dream missed Cheltenham – but that might prove to be a blessing.

He is unbeaten in 4 runs for Nicky Henderson – but whilst he was very impressive in the first 2, he was less impressive in his 2 most recent victories.

He may well be capable of further improvement – but I suspect that will be required if he is to win today.

In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking both of them on with French challenger, Beau Gosse.

He has already run in the UK, when third to Redicean at Kempton, in February.

He was a fair way behind Malaya that day – and reopposes on the same terms today.
However, I don’t think the relative speed test at Kempton saw him in his best light – and it strikes me as significant that his connections are prepared to take on Malaya again.

It is also interesting that they are prepared to take on We Have a Dream – as he is in the same ownership (and also has the same official rating).

The booking of James Reveley for a very rare ride in the UK, is also quite eye catching…

It’s hard to make a strong case, for anything outside the 4 mentioned…

Nube Negra ran well in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham – but was comprehensively beaten by Apples Shakira earlier in the season and should have little chance of reversing that form.

Et Moi Alors is the only other one who I could make some kind of case for – but he has a lot to find on the book and appears more a horse for next season.

In summary, whilst Beau Goose has a fair bit on, to beat the 2 market principals – he should be capable of running a big race and hopefully at least getting placed.
Furthermore, as neither Apples Shakira or We Have a Dream is bombproof, then there is even has a chance that he might be able to come home in front !

2:50 I suspect that Might Bite could be vulnerable in this – but so too, unfortunately, do a few other people !
At his peak, he is almost certainly the best horse in the race – but on the back of a very hard race in the Gold Cup – and on ground that could be a bit too soft for him – it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see him beaten.

I guess that is why he can be backed at 5/6 – when on form, he could easily be 1/2, or even shorter…

In fact, if I could be sure the ground was at least soft (ideally softer !), I would take him on with Bristol de Mai.

I actually planned to do just that, earlier in the week – but was a bit slow issuing an ante-post tip and the opportunity vanished.

However, Bristol de Mai wants very soft ground to be seen at his best (along with a flat, left handed course) – and I don’t know whether he will get it.

In the circumstances, I feel it has to be a watching race.

If the ground looks to be riding very soft, then Bristol de Mai could be worth siding with – though if that is the case, suspect his price will drop accordingly…

Of the others, the Definitly Red should run his race – particularly if the ground is soft – but he shouldn’t really be good enough to win.

Double Shuffle prefers decent ground – but regardless, I don’t think he will be good enough, as he’s at his best, going right handed.

Tea for Two is also at his best going right handed – though that didn’t stop him from winning this race 12 months ago.
I suspect todays renewal is a stronger – but he must have a chance of at least placing.

Clan des Obeaux is the other one of interest – and he could have been of real interest, despite having a lot to find on official ratings.

He has plenty of scope for improvement – but the suggestion is that he won’t be quite at his peak today.

Again, with all the uncertainty, this has to be a watching race.

If the ground isn’t too bad – and Cheltenham hasn’t left a mark, then Might Bite will win; however, on very soft ground, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bristol de Mai get the better of him.

3:25 Supasundea is definitely the one to beat in this – provided he’s fully recovered from quite a tough race at Cheltenham.

He finished runner up in the Stayers hurdle there – just outspeeded by Penhill.

He drops back in trip half a mile today, but that shouldn’t be a problem (in fact, he should be better suited by it).

The betting has The New One and My Tent or Yours as his main rivals - but they are 10 and 11 respectively, and whilst not in major decline, not at the peak of their powers either…

Fourth favourite, is L’Ami Serge – but he’s an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum !

I’m sure that everyone reading this knows the score with him: he travels supremely well in his races – but tends not to finish them quite so effectively !

He should be a good EW play – though 2m4f is probably his minimum trip, particularly if the ground isn’t very testing…

Outside the top 4 in the betting, you have to get creative to make cases - though it can be done !

Cyrius Darius won at this meeting as a novice – and is still relatively unexposed over  hurdles – he has some kind of chance: as too does Clyne – though he is very ground dependant, and would need it close to heavy, if he were to really threaten.

Diakali is the final outsider of interest, on his debut for Gary Moore.

He was half decent when trained by Willie Mullins and would have a chance of placing, if he returns to the fray, in top form.

Whether that will happen though, is anyones guess…

In short, this is Supasundaea race to lose, against opponents who have all got question marks hanging over them.

The only one over him, is how much Cheltenham took out of him.

If he’s fully recovered from his exertions there, he should win.

4:05 I tipped Grand Vision for this race last week – and I remain very keen on him…

In fact, my enthusiasm has increased massively over the past 24 hours – I just wish I’d been heavier with the staking !

Ofcourse, that’s easy to say now that I know he’s actually running in the race – and that Jamie Codd will be riding.

I didn’t have that knowledge last week…

Grand Vision strikes me as the perfect horse for this race.

He’s an exuberant front running grey, who jumps for fun (think Desert Orchid !).

I would expect him to relish the National fences (though you never know for sure, until they try them) – whilst I would be very hopeful that his prominent running style will see him avoid trouble.

The 2m5f trip should be perfect for him – as too will be soft ground (though he can handle heavy, if required !)

I knew all of the above when I tipped him last week – what I didn’t know, was whether he would actually run in the race: and that Jamie Codd would be in the saddle !

With the race seemingly made for him, I couldn’t believe that he wasn’t being aimed at it – but the booking of Jamie Codd is a massive positive.

He and Derek O’Connor are streets ahead of their amateur rivals – so having him on board, can only enhance the chance of Grand Vision.

More than that, this is the first ride Codd has ever had for Colin Tizzard, so there seems to be a real statement of intend from the stable.

I couldn’t be more positive about the horse – though obviously he will need some luck in running !

In terms of his rivals, then despite the field size (21), there are probably only half a dozen realistic dangers.

Balnalslow (under Derek O Connor) is the biggest – but at 5/1, there is no margin in his price.

Barrakilla is the other one I’m fearful of  - and at 12/1, it is worth having him on side as a saver.

He was very useful when running under rules – and put in a big performance when getting the better of Wells de Lune, on his Hunter Chase debut at Bangor.

He disappointed on his only subsequent run – but has been given time to recover from that and provided he takes to the fences, I would expect him to run a big race.

The free going Wells de Lune is likely to take the field along – and will hopefully set things up nicely for Grand  Vision (who I would expect to follow him).

Whilst Mon Parrain is the most interesting of those at massive prices…

However, this race is all about Grand Vision.

Providing his luck holds, he simply has to go very close.

The slight worry, is his stamina giving out on the run in – but if that does happen, then hopefully it will be Barrakilla who takes advantage !

4:40 I can’t tell you how long I’ve spent looking at this race (roughly as long as I’ve spent looking at all of the other races, combined !).

The thing is, on a day when opportunities are thin on the ground, this did look like the most solvable race on the card.

More than that, I didn’t find it too difficult to find reasons for opposing many of the runners – in fact, just about all of them !

Needless to say, the uncertainty regarding the ground, helped narrow things down quite a bit (with me eliminating those who want it quick – plus those who want it very heavy).

Trainer form was another factor that featured prominent in my thinking, with quite a few of the runners coming from stables which are struggling for form.

I could certainly have been interested in favourite, Kings Socks – but 4/1 in such a big field, competitive race, is very short – particularly for a horse with something to prove, dropping in trip.

I had planned to side with Bentelimar – but his early quote of 20/1 quickly halved – and whilst I think he has a chance, 10/1 is now plenty short enough.

Instead, I’ve opted to split stakes across Doitforthevillage and Tommy Silver.

I half fancied Doitforthevillage for the Grand Annual at Cheltenham as I felt he had been layed out for the race.

However, that contest is even more competitive than this – and he also had no luck in running.
In the circumstances, he did well to finish sixth – and could probably have finished a fair bit closer.

He runs off the same mark today – and whilst I would have preferred to see Paddy in the saddle, there may be good reason for his absence, so I’m judging the horse on it’s own merits.

It’ll handle the ground fine – and was in the process of running well in the race last season, when he unluckily fell, so the track shouldn’t be an issue.
In short, he should run well…

Tommy Silver isn’t as guaranteed to run well – but is probably the more likely of the pair to win, if things do drop right for him.

He is still a novice – and his preference for decent ground is a worry.

However, he has plenty of scope for improvement  - and appears to have been targeted at this race.

His trainer, Paul Nicholls, has a poor record at this meeting. However, I sense that he may have adjusted his approach this season and be targeting it, due to the domination of Elliott and Mullins, at Cheltenham.

Together, Doitforthevillage and Tommy Silver represent about a 4/1 shot – and in a race where I am happy to eliminate quite a few, that strikes me as a fair price.

5:15 This is not a race for strong opinions – though I can understand why Getaway Katie Mai is a short priced favourite…

She finished second on her most recent run, to Relegate – and that one went on and won the bumper at the Cheltenham festival.

Taken literally, that form gives Getaway Katie Mai an outstanding chance in this, as it certainly isn’t as strong a race as the Cheltenham one…

The only danger, is reading too much in to a single piece of form.

Relegate could have stepped forward massively to win at Cheltenham, in which case, the proximity of Getaway Katie Mai to her, is less relevant.

In fact, it is interesting that Getaway Katie Mai was beaten 14 lengths by Posh Trish when they met in a PTP at Lemonfield, 12 months ago.

The relevance of that form is debatable, but it does sow a seed of doubt…

In terms of dangers, then Posh Trish is definitely one (and based on her bumper runs !). In fact, she is probably the most solid option in the race – though she could be vulnerable to a less exposed one…

Dissavril was massively impressive when winning at Market Rasen – but the market is wise to her: Whilst Meep Meep and Cedar Valley have both won their only start, and could also be anything…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Aint 2:20 Beau Gosse 0.5pt EW 16/1

Aint 4:05 Grand Vision 1pt win 10/1

Aint 4:05 Barrakilla 0.5pt win 12/1

Aint 4:40 Doitforthevillage 0.5pt win 9/1

Aint 4:40 Tommy Silver 0.5pt win 9/1

Mentions

Aint 1:45 Calino Dairy (S )

Aint 2:50 Bristol de Mai (C )

Aint 3:25 Supasundea (P )

Aint 5:15 Getaway Katie Mai (P )