Daily write-up - Feb 25th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: and Fontwell and Southwell in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

Fontwell passed its early morning inspection, so Chris and Francis will be able to enjoy a day at the races.

The highlight of their afternoon will undoubtedly be the National Spirit hurdle - and specifically, the appearance of TVB hero, Lil Rockerfeller !

That aside however, there isn’t a great deal of interest on the card (sorry guys !).

In fairness, it’s still a bit better that the one served up at Southwell – which really is low grade fare…

The best racing on the day (aside from the National Spirit), takes place at Naas – though tipping/betting in Ireland on all but the biggest days, is never easy (certainly if you want to retain accounts !).

Unsurprisingly, there are no tips on the days – though there are a few horses to keep an eye on (and possibly support financially, if conditions allow).

Fontwell

2:50 There aren’t many races of interest the Fontwell card – but this isn’t a bad one…

The Last But One won well on his chasing debut at Musselburgh 3 weeks ago – and it’s a bit surprising that he was only raised 4lb for that win.

He sets a decent standard for this race – but also faces a few interesting rivals…

Brown Bear is the one I’m most attracted to – even though he comes with risks.

He won a strong (for the grade) handicap hurdle race at Ascot in November, before disappointing slightly at Towcester, next time.

He was switched back to fences at Fontwell on Boxing day – but bled and was pulled up.

That makes him risky – but he’s been given 2 months to recover and runs off the same mark today, as when successful at Ascot.

Assuming the bleeding doesn’t recur, then he is clearly handicapped to be competitive…

Stoical Patient is the third one of interest – though she is edging up the handicap.

Fergal Mael Duin on the other hand, is edging down the handicap - but that’s because he’s been performing poorly !

Oakidoaki and Cap Horner can be given half chances – but I think this race is likely to go to either The Last But One or Brown Bear.

At around 5/1, the latter is possibly worth a small risk.

3:20 I’d love to be all over TVB favourite, Lil Rockerfeller in this – but I’m not…

Possibly that’s partly because I wish he wasn’t running !

I have tipped him ante-post for the Stayers hurdle – and whilst I don’t hold out a huge amount of hope for that bet (it looks like being a particularly strong renewal), his chances are unlikely to be helped by him having a hard race today.

If I put that angle out of my mind (!), then I still think he has got a job on to win today…

He’s looked a tough ride this season (even tougher than previous seasons !) – and it’s not surprising that blinkers are applied this afternoon.

If they don’t perk him up, then over a trip which is now a minimum, and on relatively quick ground, he won’t be quick enough to fend off Old Guard.

The betting says that Old Guard and Air Horse One are his 2 main dangers – but I am far more fearful of the former.

On handicap ratings – and form – there should be little between the two.

However, whereas Paul Nichols was in sparkling form yesterday, Harry Fry is struggling to find winners.

My feeling is that the blinkers will light up Lil Rockerfeller – and Trevor Whelan will kick for home a fair way out.
However, I suspect that Old Guard will just track him and pounce between the final 2 flights.

The other 5 runners all have quite a bit to find, so maybe an Old Guard/Lil Rockerfeller forecast, is the best way to play the race (possibly reversed, just in case Rocky refuses to be headed !!)…

Southwell

2:30 There is precious little of interest on the Southwell card – but there is an eye catcher running in this…

Run Don’t Hide caught my eye on his penultimate outing at Wincanton, when staying on for third place.

I felt he might be able to build on that run  - and maybe take a similar low grade race – though I could have been wrong !

Certainly, he performed poorly on his only subsequent outing at Huntingdon – and based on that run, I couldn’t be remotely interested in him !

He switches to fences today – which may elicit some improvement.

Also, it’s not the strongest of races, so he may be capable of running into a place.
He’s not one I could really recommend siding with – but at 20/1 in a weak event, I may have a tiny EW bet on him, just in case !!

Naas

2:40 If the price has been there, I might have been tempted to take a small chance and tip Coeur Joyeux in this…

He won a decent race at Punchestown in November – and then ran well in an ultra competitive race at the Dublin racing festival at the beginning of this month.

He only finished sixth in the that race, behind Last Goodbye (and Vieux Morvan !) – but it was still a very good run, in the context of this race.

He holds Sutton Manor on that run – so it’s difficult to understand why that one is shorter in the betting for todays race: and whilst Barry Geraghty rides Fitzhenry, that doesn’t necessarily means he’s JPs number 1, as Coeur Joyeux is always ridden by Luke Dempsey…

At the end of the day, it comes down to price (as always !).
Couer Joyeux was 6/1 early this morning – which was acceptable: however, he’s 9/2 now – and that’s just a little too short.

If he drifts however…

3:10 Speak Easy is the one I like in this – but he’s another one who has been well backed this morning…

He was an impressive winner of a novice hurdle at Navan, early in December – and on that back of that, was allowed to take his chance in a Grade 1 at Naas, early in January.
He disappointed in that race, but could easily bounce back today.

That said, this is a tough race to fathom and most of the runners can be given a chance.

Certainly I would want more than the 3/1 currently on offer about Speak Easy, to consider siding with him…

3:45 It’s difficult to look beyond Gordon Elliots 2 runners in this: Doctor Pheonix and Ball D’Arc…

Doctor Phoenix is greatly favoured by race conditions.

He receives 9lb from Ball D’Arc – even though he is officially rated just 2lb inferior.

On a pure pounds and lengths basis, he should win.

And he may just do that – but as a 10 year old, with plenty of miles on the clock – and on the back of a few hard races this season, he’s not got any scope for improvement.

Ball D’Arc is far less exposed and it’s certainly not impossible, that he will come out on top.

That said, at 11/8 Doctor Pheonix; 2/1 Ball D’Arc, it’s a race I will just be watching…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon !

TVB.

Mentions

Font 2:50 Brown Bear (O )

Font 3:20 Old Guard (O )

Sthw 2:30 Run Don’t Hide (S )

Naas 2:40 Coeur Joyeux (P )

Naas 3:10 Speak Easy (P )

Review of the day

There was no joy with todays 3 tips – though they all ran with some credit, particularly considering their morning odds…

In fact, all 3 ran quite similar races: prominent early – before fading when it mattered…

First up was Our Kaempfer.

I was a little disappointed to see him sent into the lead, as that’s not his normal running style.
Generally, when horses wearing head gear for the first time, lead early, they don’t get home.
And that’s precisely what happened with him, as he led into the home straight, but then faded…

He could be interesting next time, off an even lower mark – provided he is ridden with more restraint.

However, he would again be a risky proposition…

Next it was Thebarrowman, in the Eider chase at Newcastle.

He didn’t lead early; instead he took up a position just behind leader, Milansbar.

In truth, I could have no issue with the way he was ridden.
He was given every chance, if he was good enough – he just wasn’t good enough.

He looked a tired horse when he fell at the fourth last, and he sadly paid the ultimate price for his efforts.

Zeroshadesofgrey was the final tip to run.

He was very strong in the betting, eventually being sent off the 9/2 second favourite.

It’s possible that some of support was down to traders, who figured he was likely to get an uncontested lead.

And that is what happened – though they presumably didn’t allow for the fact that he was going to crash through numerous hurdles !

It says much for his ability that he was still leading – and seemingly going well – when he entered the home straight.

However his early efforts then took their toll and he was beaten after jumping the second last…

With regard to the Mentions:

Then Bid Adieu was far too free at Kempton – and didn’t get home,

Beau Gosse ran better in the same race – but appeared to find everything happening too quickly.

The race was won by Redicean – and he subsequently received a lot of praise (and a relatively low quote for the Triumph hurdle !).

He may ultimately prove himself a good horse – but I really don’t think that todays race took much winning…

I was far more impressed by Global Citizen, as he won a seemingly much stronger Dovecote hurdle in convincing style.

He could be a horse going places.

Shoal Bay finished in mid division and was a bit disappointing…

Theatre Territory ran really well to finish third in Betdaq handicap chase.

She travelled strongly throughout – but lacked a change of gear when the pace quickened in the home straight.

The race was won by Master Dee, who I had marked down as the main danger.

In truth, I could easily have tipped both horses – if at any point, I’d been able to get decent odds.

I managed to back them both at 12 on BF, within 5 mins of the off – but those kind of odds weren’t available when I was able to tip.

It was a similar story with Baywing and Hainan in the Eider chase – and it demonstrates the importance of showing patience in the big races, and picking off prices throughout the day…

Kayf Blanco ran yet another really big race in the penultimate race on the Kempton card – but was again let down by his jumping.

This time however, it was early in the race – as he didn’t jump too badly when put under pressure in the closing stages.

He still spent a bit too long in the air however, and that probably cost him victory.

He is improving though and I would expect him to come good, sooner rather than later…

Over at Chepstow, Coeur Blimey was a big disappointment – so maybe we owe Tom Segal a drink !

Finally, Eastlake was a non runner in the 2 mile chase – leaving the relatively well backed Tornado in Milan to beat Overtown Express.

I wouldn’t have seen that one coming…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Feb 24th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Newcastle and Chepstow in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

With a polar vortex apparently poised to strike from the East, this could be the last decent days racing we get for a while – we better try to make the most of it !

There is likely to be significant variation in the ground conditions across the meetings: with the going described as ‘Good’ at Kempton – and ‘Heavy’ at Newcastle.

So I’ve been on the hunt for mud larks in the north – and speedsters in the south.
Sounds simple enough

Overall, it’s a pretty standard days racing for a Saturday.

The proximity of Cheltenham can be felt – with today virtually the last day, when serious festival contenders will be able to throw their hat in to the ring.

I’ve ended up with just the 3 tips on the day – which is light.
I had hoped to tip a couple more – but others beat me to them and the prices went.
Such is life, I guess…

Here’s the rationale for the tips that I was able to issue – plus my thoughts on the days other big races…

Kempton

1:15 I think it is worth taking a risk on Our Kaempfer in this.

He’s been badly out of form, recently – pulling up on 3 of his last 5 runs.

However, as a consequence, his mark has dropped and he is now attractively handicapped.

He had a wind op. prior to his most recent run, at Huntingdon – and didn’t run too badly that day (at least giving him something to build on).

Cheek pieces are applied for the first time today – and he is dropped down in trip (a combination that I like).
He is also running at a track where he’s had previous success (2 wins from 3 runs) – and is back on his preferred quick ground.

In short, there are plenty of reasons for taking a risk on him, at the available odds.

If he’s not up to the job, then this becomes a tough race to solve.

The Mighty Don had 3 goes as an eye catcher without winning – but there is a chance he could win today, on his first run since being taken off the list.

That said, there is no margin in a price of 7/1.

Monbeg Legend looks to be the best of Nicky Hendersons 3 runners – and he also has a chance: as to does Django Django, for Jonjo.

Whilst at a slightly bigger price, Awesome Rosie has possibilities.

In short, whilst Our Kaempfer is far from guaranteed to run his race – if he does, then I think he could be up to winning !

1:50 On official ratings, Cryname is the one to beat in this.
He has at least 8lb in hand of his rivals – and only has to concede them 5lb.

However, he would prefer a bit of cut in the ground – so conditions may not be ideal for him.

Conversely, they could be perfect for his main rival, The Unit, as he has a marked preference for quick ground…

Both For Good Measure and Petrou have a bit to find on official ratings – but couldn’t be confidently dismissed.

It’s impossible to find an angle on the race without knowing exactly how the ground will ride – and also how the race will be run.

Cyrname should win – but is certainly not bomb proof.

2:25 It’s moderately tempting to take on Redicean in this.

He has comfortably won his 2 races over hurdles – but the form is worth very little.

In fairness, he does have plenty of scope for improvement and should be suited by the prevailing conditions – though whether that entitles him to be an odds-on shot, is a different matter…

On ratings, he’s not even the best horse in the race, so he certainly has enough to prove.

In fact, if the going were a bit softer, I would probably take him on with Beau Gosse.
He’s been sent over from France by Guillaume Macaire – and that in itself seems significant.

However, all of the horses form is on very sot ground, so it’s anyone’s guess whether he will handle the prevailing conditions.
If he does, then I think he is the most likely winner.

Of the others, then I am moderately interested in the outsider of the field, Bid Adieu.
He has his first run for Venetia, having moved over from Ireland.

He’s not run for nearly 3 months – and Venetia is out of form – so I can’t really recommend backing him.

However, it’s very interesting that she has pitched him into this graded event, rather than an ordinary novice race.

I suggest you keep an eye on him in the market – just in case !

3:00 This is a fascinating race – though I’ve no idea what will win it !

There are 3 very decent flat racers making their debut in it, in the shape of Humphrey Bogart, Scarlet Dragon and Carntop – and any of the 3, could have sufficient natural ability to win.

Ofcourse, it’s a big ask, debuting over hurdles in Grade 2 event – but connections clearly think they are pretty useful (or at least, that they could be !).

Of those with form in the book, then Mont des Avaloirs sets the standard, on his third in the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle. That could be very decent form…

When you throw into the mix, Destrier, Michaels’ Mount and Shoal Bay – all of whom have shown decent form - and have still got plenty of scope for improvement – you see what a tricky race it is…

If I were to get involved, I would be inclined to go for one of the more experienced runners.

At 14/1, Shoal Bay is probably the ‘value’ call in the race.

That said, I’m not sure why Carntop can be backed at 33/1, when the 2 other hurdling debutantes are much shorter (but their form isn’t much better).
He could be worth a tiny speculative play.

3:35 I’m a bit irritated that I didn’t get involved with this race yesterday…

I had a good look a the field when the final decs were released on Thursday and came to the conclusion that Theatre Territory looked overpriced at 14/1.

However, I wanted to be sure of the state of the ground, so I decided to wait before issuing (in fairness, there didn’t seem a particular rush).

Roll on to this morning, and you can’t now beat 8/1 on Theatre Territory…

I guess I would still take that price, if I felt there was any margin in it – but in such an open race, I’m not convinced there is…

Certainly, you can give a good chance to at least half a dozen runners – and half a chance to a few more !
Master Dee would probably head the list of dangers – and it’s strange that he is now the same price at Theatre Territory (as he was half the price yesterday).

Go Conquer is another who I was tempted by. He was massively impressive when winning at Ascot on his penultimate run – the question is whether the handicapper has now got to him…

Tintern Theatre will go very close: provided he has recovered from his slog in the Haydock mud – and his jumping hold up: whilst I wouldn’t completely dismiss 2016 winner Theatre Guide.

Art Mauresque has the class – and loves the track: though his stamina for the trip is unproven – as his ability to cope with a big field.

And then there is the favourite, Acting Lass, who definitely has a chance !

It really is a tough race to call – and having missed the boat with Theatre Territory, I figured the best call was to swerve it !

4:10 There are a couple of eye catchers running in this, in the shape of Kayf Blanco and Rothman – and both are capable of winning…

The trouble is, so are the other 6 runners in the race – it really is that open !

Kayf Blanco was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Wetherby when he finished second – and I tipped him last time, when he was beaten a neck into third, at the same venue.

He’s been raised 2lb for that run – but is still handicapped to win.
However, his jumping isn’t great – and that has cost him the last twice.

Kempton isn’t an easy track to jump round – and there is a definite possibility that it will catch him out.
If he does jump round efficiently, then I think he’ll win – but at 4/1, I’m not inclined to take the risk…

There is nothing wrong with Rothmans jumping (touch wood !) – it’s his finishing effort which tends to come up short…

I would say he is a decent bet to be placed this afternoon – but not such a good one to win.

My feeling is that when he does come good, it will be by completely outclassing his rivals – and I can’t see that happening this afternoon.

A case of sorts can be made for all of the other runners – so it’s going to be a question of which one things drop right for on the day.

That could easily be Kayf Blanco – or possibly even Rothman – but just as easily it could be something else…

Chepstow

3:05 I’m pretty sure that Zeroshadesofgrey is going to run a really big race in this…

Having shown very little for a year, he had cheek pieces applied for the first time at Wincanton on his penultimate run, and the impact was marked.

He led for most of the race: travelling strongly and jumping well, before getting collared on the run to the last.

It was a similar story last time at Catterick, when he appeared to have his field in trouble turning in, but had done too much, too soon and didn’t get home…

He’s dropped back to 2 miles today, which is an interesting move for a horse who was running over 3 miles, quite recently,

However, his new run style seems to suggest it is a good move…

There are a couple of other factors which significantly add to his appeal today: firstly, he has had a wind op since his last run. If he was struggling to breath when put under pressure that might explain why he tied up close home.

The other thing is that he should get an uncontested lead – and that is always a positive.

This doesn’t look like the strongest of races – and if Trevor Whelan (on his only ride of the day), is able to dominate, then I can see Zeroshadesofgrey running his rivals ragged up the long Chepstow straight.

3:40 I really had hoped to be able to tip Coeur Blimey in this…

He opened at 6/1 last night – which was a perfectly acceptable price.

However, just before 7pm, the Racing Post issued their ‘Punt’ email – and Tom Segal had put up the horse.
It’s odds immediately crashed to 5/1, best – lower elsewhere…

In truth, I would probably still have taken a risk at 5/1 – but it was 4/1 this morning by the time I could tip, and you have to draw the line somewhere…

The thing is, Coeur Blimey has plenty to prove.

He’s stepping up in trip significantly today – and that could go either way.

He’s also a suspect jumper – and whilst that may be improved by the longer distance (and slower pace), it may not.

I’m pretty sure he is well handicapped – but that may not be sufficient to see him home in front…

This probably isn’t the strongest of races – though the top 6 in the betting all have a chance.
Connetable looks the biggest danger – particularly as Bryony Frost (and her 3lb claim) looks to have been sent to Chepstow, primarily to ride him.

That said, I would also give Poker Play a chance.

He’s clearly well thought of and showed definite promise, last time.

Book of Gold, Saint Ladylime and This is it, should all run well – which is why I can’t bring myself to chase the price on Coeur Blimey.

If he does drift out to 5/1+, close to the off (as the Tom Segal effect wears off), then I wouldn’t put anyone off getting involved with him.

But at 4/1, I’m afraid that I have to pass…

4:15 If I could be sure that Eastlake was primed to run in this, I would definitely take a chance on him.

He was an eye catcher when he last ran, back in October.

The absence doesn’t particularly concern me – and I see the fact that he’s had a wind op in the interim as a positive.

He might be getting on now (he’s 12), but I suspect he retains most of his ability – and he is now rated a pound lower than his last winning mark.

However, if he runs poorly this afternoon, he is likely to be dropped a good few pounds – and that would put him on a good mark for the spring festivals…

In truth, he may no longer be good enough to win at Cheltenham or Aintree, but I suspect connections would rather get his mark down and find out, than take today’s prize and lose any chance of winning a big one…

I may be wrong of course: and If I am, the betting will likely advise.

But without that knowledge, I feel I have to swerve him.

In truth, this is a trappy race.

Based on his win at Newbury, Overtown Express is very much the one to beat, but he seems to have gone off the boil.

Rock on Rocky is one who should run his race – and whilst he is held on form by Overtown Express, if forced, I would probably side with him…

Newcastle

2:45 He’s a very risky one – but I simply have to take a chance on Thebarrowman in this…

Trained in Ireland by Adrian Keatley, I find it fascinating that a trainer, not associated with raids on the UK, has decided to run a novice in the Eider chase.

Undoubtedly, on the form book, he has a lot to prove: but the fact that in his 10 race career, he has already competed twice in Grade 1 events, seems to show how highly connections rate him.

The most recent of those was at Leopardstown over Christmas, when he finished fourth behind Shattered Love.

It’s impossible to know what a fair rating would be for that run – but a mark of 131 doesn’t look too bad, particularly bearing in mind the horse has massive scope for improvement.

Ofcourse improvement is not guaranteed – and he has yet to prove himself over the trip. However, his breeding suggests that the step up in trip should suit.

He’s certainly not one that I can justify in terms of pounds and lengths – but he is one who I want to have on side…

In truth, I did consider splitting stakes on the race – and also siding with a more solid option.

The trouble is, there were at least 3 ‘possibles’ that I could have gone with, in the shape of Hainan, Back to the Thatch and Baywing.
All 3 are quoted at single figure prices – and simply, with plenty of other dangers in the race, I didn’t feel there was sufficient value in their prices to warrant a risk.

If asked to nominate the most likely winner of the race, I would go for Hainan: but if asked to nominate the best bet in the race, Thebarrowman at 20/1 wins hands down !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 1:15 Our Kaempfer 0.5pt win 20/1

Newc 2:45 Thebarrowman 1pt win 20/1

Chep 3:05 Zeroshadesofgrey 1pt win 10/1

Mentions

Kemp 2:25 Bid Adieu (C )

Kemp 3:00 Shual Bay (O )

Kemp 3:35 Theatre Territory (O )

Kemp 4:10 Kayf Blanco (P )

Chep 3:40 Coeur Blimey (P )

Chep 4:15 Eastlake (C )

Review of the day

I’m sure most of you don’t need telling that I’ve hit a rich vein of form…

Those who have been on the service for a few years will know that it happens.

Normally earlier in the season – but it happens !

Today I issued a total of 11 Tips/Mentions and recorded 2 winners, 8 seconds – and an unseated at the first !

Now that’s consistency !!

Fortunately for us, the 2 winners were both tips – and as a result, it was another winning day.

I’m sure that a few of you would like me to be tipping every day at the moment – but that’s not how it works !

The reason things are going well is because I’m not pushing for winners – or even tips.

If they are there, I’m taking them: if they aren’t I’m leaving things alone.

You simply have to know where to draw the line in this game – that is absolutely key.

I really wanted to tip War Sound today – but the price went and so I left him alone.

Maybe he was lucky/unlucky to only finish a rallying second – but I think it was a valuable lesson, all the same.

You should never chase winners: ‘value’ is everything.

So endeth todays lesson

On to the performances of the days tips…

Minella Daddy was first up – and I couldn’t believe that history repeated itself !

I tipped him last season, when he was nailed by Regal Encore – and exactly the same thing happened today…

In truth, I got very close to tipping Regal Encore – but I thought he would struggle with the soft ground.
However, the ground moved in his favour (it also suited Minella Daddy) – and despite the big turnaround in the weights, he was still a bit too good for Minella Daddy (though I think their respective jumps at the final fence, made the difference).

Next up it was Le Patriote.

He was originally my best day on the day – but I cooled a little on him when I looked more closely at the opposition !

However, I shouldn’t have worried – as he travelled like a class horse – and whilst he only did enough close home, he did enough !

Identity Thief was next – and his was the most frustrating performance of the day (even surpassing Minella Daddy !).

I knew he was a good tip – and when he over-took Forge Meadow on the home turn, I thought he was a great tip !

However Sean Flanagan had made his move a bit early – and Robbie Power was able to galvanise Forge Meadow for a second effort.

The frustrating aspect was that Identity Thief could have won – but such is life…

Silsol was next – and his race lasted precisely one fence !
I felt the booking of Noel Fehiy would help with his jumping – but it didn’t !

The annoying thing with him, was that he had been backed in to 5/1 at the off, so a big run was expected.

I’m sure he would have gone close – but alas, you’ll have to take my word for that !

The final tip on the day was Tommy Rapper.

I often bang on about the need for a bit of luck – and I suspect he had some.

Top Ville Ben fell early, bringing down Black Ivory.

I felt the latter was the biggest danger to Tommy Rapper – so him out of the race made things a whole lot easier.

Tommy Rapper still had to work very hard for victory – but under a strong finish from Bridget Andrews, he managed to wear down Theos Charm, close home.

Pleasing stuff !

As for the Mentions:

Dame de Compagnie should probably have won the opener at Ascot – but I suspect that Barry Geraghty was a bit too keen to give her an easy race and it was too late, by the time he realised she wasn’t going to cruise home !

In the following race at Ascot, Ms Parfois wasn’t able to reel in the ultra game Black Corton.
Rarely will you see a horse improve as much as the winner has, this season.

At Wincanton, War Sound did too much, too soon, and couldn’t withstand the challenge of Sea Wall, up the home straight.
He was rallying at the end of the race – but couldn’t get back up.

There were no excuses for Chti Bello – Elgin was just a bit too good (which was surprising); and it was a similar story at Gowran, where the revitalised Our Duke was too good for Presenting Percy.

The runner up lost little in defeat however, as the winner looked a legitimate Gold Cup contender.

Finally, in the race of the day - and arguably the race of the season - Cue Card attempted to run the finish out of his rivals - but Waiting Patiently stalked him and pounced jumping the last.

It was as good a race as you will see – with a brilliant performance from both the winner and the runner up,

It really did epitomise everything that is great about the NH game…

TVB.  

Daily write-up - Feb 17th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

There are some really good races as well – with some top class horses running.

That said, field sizes are generally smaller than you would like/expect – meaning that prices are generally tight.

I’ve managed to find a few tips on the day – but non of them are certainties.

They are ‘value’ calls, rather than strong fancies.

My strongest fancy on the day actually runs at Wincanton – but its price has been crushed, so it can only be a Mention (though one I expect to win !).

Anyway, it is as it is – I can only respond to the races/opportunities on offer !

Here are my thoughts on a busy day – including the rational for the tips that I did issue.

Ascot

1:15 Dame de Compagnie is the one that interests me most in this. She was massively impressive on her UK debut at Uttoxeter at the beginning of November, before disappointing a fortnight later, at Cheltenham.

She’s not run since then, suggesting that all was not right.

If she bounces back to her Uttoxeter form, I would expect her to be too good for Captain Cattistock, in receipt of 10lb.

1:50 I think Ms Parfois is the one to beat in this.
She’s shown progressive form over fences this season – and whilst this represents her stiffest task to date, I think she will be up to it.

She receives 7lb from apparent main rival, Black Corton.
He’s one I would instinctively look to oppose – though in fairness, his record this season is very impressive.

I actually think that Mountain Mews may be the best horse in the race – but he didn’t look to stay 3 miles last time at Doncaster and I fear it will be the same story today.

2:25 It’s a bit disappointing that Gold Present has been withdrawn from this.
Up 8lb for his last win – and racing on ground likely to be too soft for him, he was one I was keen to take on…

In his absence, the race looks open and I think it’s worth taking a chance on Minella Daddy.

I was a big fan of his last season, and tipped him at the Ascot Christmas meeting when he was collared close home, by Regal Encore (a painful defeat !).

An 11lb turn around in the weights for just under 2 lengths, should see Minella Daddy reverse things today – assuming both horses run to the same level of form…

Unfortunately, that isn’t guaranteed, as Regal Encore is notoriously unpredictable - and Minella Daddy is on his second run back, having been absent since last Christmas.

That absence is a bit of a worry – though I thought he shaped with promise on his recent comeback, over todays course.

Assuming that run has brought him on, then I would expect him to run a really big race this afternoon.

Certainly, track and trip are ideal – and whilst there is a question mark over the ground, I’m hopeful he’ll get away with it…

A case of sorts, can be made for all of the other runners.
If he (and his stable !) were in any kind of form then Tenor Nivernais would take a lot of beating – however, there are big question marks hanging over him, particularly at a price of just 6/1.

Another Venture is probably the right favourite - but he’s up in class and has plenty to prove: and whilst it may not be enough of a stamina test for Vieux Lion Rouge, it may be a bit too much for Holly Bush Henry…

3:00 This is a tough looking handicap – but I think Le Patriote may be capable of taking it.

He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run, when making his UK debut in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton.

He tanked through that race that day, looking the most likely winner turning in, but then fading up the straight…

Maybe not too surprisingly, he was dropped back in trip for his next run, at Cheltenham – and was subject to huge market support.

However, he was a little disappointing and having held every chance, could only finish fourth.

That does put a question mark over him – as does the application of check pieces and the step back up in trip !

However, the Cheltenham race was most unsatisfactory, with the winner and third stealing a march on the field, so the value of the form is questionable.

I’m prepared to take a risk that Dr Newland is still learning about the horse - and trust his judgement with regard to both the trip and the cheekpieces.

The bottom line is, he travelled like a very well handicapped horse at Kempton (in an extremely strong contest) – and we are now getting a decent price, because of a poor run last time (which can be explained away)…

Kildisart is probably his main rival. Certainly Daryl Jacobs appears to have chosen him ahead of Fix le Kap - and he could be given a definite chance.

Whether the ground will be to Kildisarts liking however, is a different matter…

Dieg Man is another one of potential interest – with the betting likely to foretell his fate.
Whilst Vivas is the most interesting of the outsiders…

3:35 This is a truly fascinating contest – but a very difficult one to call…

Top Notch sets the standard: He looks almost certain to run his race – and whatever finishes in front of him, is likely to win !

The betting suggests that Waiting Patiently is his most dangerous rival – and I wouldn’t disagree with that.

He’s unbeaten in 5 races over fences and has improved on each outing.

He’ll need to take another step forward to defeat Top Notch – but he may be capable of doing just that.

Coney Island has a little more to prove.

He was a top notch novice in Ireland last season – but wasn’t impressive when making a successful seasonal debut over today course in December.

He’ll need to leave that run behind if he is to make any impression today.

On ratings, Frodon has a big chance - but I think he was flattered by his run last time, when everything went right for him.

I’d actually give Cue Card more of a chance – accepting that there is the possibility that he’s now past competing at this level.

I suspect he’ll be fully tuned for the run – and his stable is in good form.

Speredek and Traffic Fluid, should both be outclassed. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me hugely, if both ran well !

I’m certainly not sure that Traffic Fluid warrants being a 100/1 shot – though whether he can manage to get placed, is a different matter…

In all probability, I would expect this race to be won by either Top Notch or Waiting Patiently. The former is a very solid option: whilst the latter still has potential.

If there is to be a shock, then Cue Card is the one most likely to cause it.

Haydock

2:05 Agrapart really should win this.
He has to give 6lb to most of his rivals – but is rated at least 13lb superior to them all.

More than that, he will get the very soft ground that he needs – and should have no issue with the 3 mile trip.

On the flip side, Lizzie Kelly can’t claim her 3lb allowance, so he’s effectively only got 4lb in hand of Boite, on official ratings…

I would still expect that to be enough – I’m just not sure I would want to take 4/6 about it being so !

Boite does look the main danger – particular as he bounced back to form last time.
However, Zarkander won the corresponding race last year (when Agrapart could only finish third), and whilst the ground won’t suit him as well today, he must have a chance…

2:40 There is a poor turnout for this race.

I like Markov as a horse – and he should be the one to beat – but he may not appreciate very soft ground.

Lake View Lad should have no issue with condition, and at 11/4 against 7/4 for Markov, he is the value play in the race.

3:15 Off a mark of 161 and with the Grand National as the ultimate aim, I think Blaklion has to be taken on in this…

He was actually beaten in the corresponding race 12 months ago, when running off a mark 9lb lower.

Since then, he has run 3 really good races – but 2 of them were at Aintree, so their relevance to this contest is questionable.

Whatever, I’m not sure that he has improved by 9lb in 12 months – and he couldn’t win the race from his lower mark…

In fairness, there is a possibility that todays race may not be as strong as last seasons renewal – though it does appear up to scratch.

Wild West Wind was the one I was initially drawn to – but that was when he was a 7/1 shot.
He’s half that price now and whilst that won’t affect his chance of wining, it will affect our chance of betting profitably !

The Dutchman has a lot on his plate, having been raised 13lb for his last time out win; and whilst Three Faces West should have a decent chance, the fact that Dickie has gone to Wincanton, to ride horses with better chances, is a bit off putting.

Mysteree and Silsol are the 2 that interest me most.

The former was very progressive last season – and is proven at todays course, in heavy ground. The question is whether he has sufficient class for a race of this nature…

There is no doubting the class of Silsol.

When he won over hurdles 15 months ago, he was followed home by Native River and Lil Rockerfeller !

You can question the relevance of that form, for todays test – but you can’t question the quality.

He’s only run twice since then: and whilst there weren’t many positives to be gleaned fro his seasonal debut at Haydock in November – he did much better when fifth in the Welsh National, just after Christmas.

That proved he can cope with an extreme test in the mud – and off a mark of 144, he is handicapped to win.

I’m a little perplexed by the booking of Noel Fehily.

I’m a massive fan of his – he’s just not who I would expect to see on top (I would have expected with Sam TD or an apprentice).

That said, I can think of no better man to get the horse jumping – and that could ultimately prove key.
Silsol is definitely a risky selection. However, he has the class to win this, if everything drops right for him…

3:50 Black Ivory, Noble Robin and Tommy Rapper look the 3 to concentrate on in this.

All 3 are progressive novices – and whilst I doubt they will fill the first 3 places (though I guess they might !), I’ll be surprised if one of them doesn’t come home in front…

Black Ivory did us a favour last time, when wining at Warwick – but he’s got more of a job on today, off a 6lb higher mark and against less exposed opponents.

He may be up to it – but odds of 3/1 don’t really encourage taking a risk.

I slightly prefer his chances to those of the similarly priced Noble Robin.

He’s nearly impossible to assess, having won 3 run of the mill novice hurdles.

An opening mark of 130 may be generous – or it may not be…

It’s a bit easier to assess Tommy Rapper – because whilst he is also a novice, he has been running in better quality races (where a number of runners have quantifiable form).

He actually finished 8^th in last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival – and on the back off that, was sent off favourite for the Grade 2 Person War hurdle at Chepstow on his seasonal debut.

He disappointed that day – and on his next run when beaten at Towcester – but his 2 most recent runs suggest he is finally getting the hang of things and starting to fulfil his potential.

If that’s the case, then I suspect he is well handicapped on a mark of 135. Certainly a ¾ length defeat by Willoughby Court at Warwick last season, looks very good - with the benefit of hindsight !

Of the more exposed runners in the race, then Theos Charm looks most interesting.

However, he hasn’t got a great deal in hand of his mark – and I suspect Tommy Rapper, Back Ivory or Noble Robin, have…

Wincanton

2:15 I really wanted to tip War Sound in this…

He was an eye catcher last time at Cheltenham, when he travelled very powerfully in a good race but didn’t get home.
He’s been dropped 2lb in the handicap for that run – and returns to the minimum trip this afternoon.

Dickie is riding at Wincanton rather than Haydock – and I suspect War Sound is the main reason why…

He opened up at a general 3/1 last night and I was very happy with that.

I would even have accepted 5/2.

However, he’s now just 15/8 – and whilst I think that’s about right, I can’t bring myself to take the risk.

Firstly, he’s not the best of jumpers – and Wincanton has become a tricky track to jump round; secondly, he looked good forcing the pace last time – but he could have a rival for that role, in Beau Bay; and thirdly, I can’t completely dismiss any of his 4 opponents !

I do think that he’ll be too good for them – but we’re not getting much margin in case anything goes wrong, from a pace /jumping perspective.

I guess that’s the main issue with these small field races.

I would much rather have taken 5/1 on him in a 10 horse race.
Unfortunately, I don’t get to define the opportunities – I can merely respond to the ones that are placed in front of me !

2:45 I think Chti bello will take a bit of beating in this…

He’s the highest rated horse in the race – and has the best form in the book: but more than that, I suspect Dan Skelton has him primed to run for his life !

The reality is, the horse isn’t top class, and races like todays are probably as good as it’s going to get for him.

Therefore, it’s not unreasonable for Skelton to really go for it with him.
Certainly the fact that Harry is on board, when he could have take a few rides at Haydock, seems significant; as does the fitting of a first time tongue tie.

Of course there is a chance that Call me Lord is just a better horse: but I think he will have to be a fair bit better, as I doubt he will be as tuned up…

Elgin is probably the third best hose in the race – but I doubt he’ll be able to give 4lb to the other 2.

The other one of interest, is Flying Tiger.

He’s an eye catcher – and having his final run as such.

Again, if he was fully tuned up, I think he could go much closer than his odds imply. However, he is rated 16lb inferior to Chti bello – so beating him (or even running close) would mess up a handicap mark which I suspect connections will want to preserve, for the spring festivals…

Gowran Park

2:00 The Ascot chase may be the race of the day - but the Red Mills chase isn’t far behind.

In fact, as they are both run over 2m4f, it’s a bit of a shame they can’t be combined !

In receipt of weight from all of his rivals, Presenting Percy looks the one to beat.

He has become a very versatile horse (as well as a very good one !): winning over 3m5f on his penultimate start; and over hurdles on his most recent one.

I don’t think that 2m4f is his optimum trip – but he may get away with it, particularly in heavy ground.

Furthermore, 2m4f isn’t the optimum trip of his main danger, Our Duke.

He definitely wants at least 3 miles, and under top weight today, I’ll be surprised if he comes home in front.

The ground is the main issue with Valseur Lido – plus an inexplicably poor run last time, when I realty fancied him !

Which means that A Toi Phil must have a chance of springing a surprise…

Conditions will be perfect for him – he just shouldn’t be good to win !
All the negatives make it an impossible race to get involved with, as it will ultimately come down to who can deal with their issues best !

I suspect that will be Presenting Percy – but  at 6/4, I won’t be betting on it !

3:10 The defection of Mick Jazz has turned this into a more interesting betting race…

Whilst he wasn’t a certainty, he was the most solid option in the race, so with him out, it’s become a race which I think is worth getting involved with.

Lagostovegas is now a short priced favourite, and whilst I would agree that she should head the betting,  she has a couple of significant issues to overcome.

She has not run since last November – and that was on the flat: whilst she also has a marked preference for decent ground (which she won’t get !).

This is almost certainty a prep rave for her spring targets – and as a consequence, I think she is vulnerable this afternoon…

I think she is worth taking on with Identity Thief.

A former top class hurdler, he look like doing equally well over fences - until going wrong behind Min, last Christmas.

He didn’t look the same horse in his 4 subsequent runs last spring – but I thought there were positives in his comeback performance in the Irish Champion hurdle at Leopardstown, a fortnight ago.

He travelled nicely to the second last – before getting tapped for toe when the pace quickened.
However, he stayed on nicely after the last – and I suspect he will have come on for that run.

It’s impossible to know how much of his former ability remains.

However, at his best, he would have won this race quite comfortably - and with doubts over the favourite and with him having shown promise on his most recent run, I think he is worth a risk at the price.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 2:25 Minella Daddy 1pt win 7/1

Asc 3:00 Le Patriote 1pt win 11/2

Hayd 3:15 Silsol 1pt win 10/1

Hayd 3:50 Tommy Rapper 1pt win 11/2

Gwrn 3:10 Identity Thief 1pt win 10/1

Mentions

Asc 1:15 Dame de Compagnie (P )

Asc 1:50 Ms Parfois (P )

Asc 3:35 Cue Card (O )

Winc 2:15 War Sound (P )

Winc 2:45 Chti bello (P )

Gwrn 2:00 Presenting Percy (C )