Review of the day

I’ve been trying to strike a balance with the tips this season, between short priced ones, which I think should win: and long priced ones which I think might win (but represent ‘value’ !).

As those of you who have been with the service for a few years will know, historically I’ve tended towards the latter group.

I’ve had some notable successes as well – but the reality is, it’s getting harder and harder to get on horses at big prices who have got a chance – and inevitably the losing runs can also be quite long (which I know some of you aren’t so keen on !)

The problem with putting up short priced selections is that you can’t afford to get many wrong.

I had plenty of possibles on my list today – but thankfully the two that I chose to side with, did the decent thing and came home in front…

The first of those was Mercian Prince.

I waited all morning for his price to reach 3/1 – and it eventually did (kind of !).

It’s very frustrating, waiting for price drifts – the bookmakers are never as slow in cutting prices !

The horse was a 7/2 shot on BF for most of the morning – but the main bookmakers just wouldn’t push him out.

Hopefully most of you got the price.

He even opened up at 3/1 on course – before being trimmed in to 11/4 at the off.

In the race, he travelled with real purpose – and I was confident from half way that he was going to take some beating.

However, I was a little concerned when Rothman made a big move, rounding the home turn.

I’d recognised him as a danger – but he tends to finish second in his races – and thankfully he did that again today, allowing Mercian Prince to come home an impressive winner.

The second ‘probable’ was Black Ivory.

I was quite keen on him – despite the fact he was competing in a reasonably large field.

He was given a very good ride by Jamie Hamilton ,who always had  him in the right position – and rounding the home turn it was simply a question of whether the horse was good enough.

Thankfully he was – and whilst Sykes was game in defeat, Black Ivory was another convincing winner…

The 2 more speculative tips on the day, didn’t do quite so well…

Somchine never really featured in a race which was stolen from the front, by Big Jim.

The market said he was going to run a big race – and that’s precisely what happened.

I think Somchine is one to keep an eye on – with a few more pounds off his mark, possibly on slower ground…

Wishfull Dreaming also didn’t feature in the Lanzarote at Kempton.

It was a big ask, in a deep race on his seasonal debut – but I felt he was worth a risk.

Again, there will be other days for him…

In terms of the Mentions:

At Kempton, God’s Own ran like a horse in need of the outing.

By contrast, Waiting Patiently looked like a serious racehorse – and it will be fascinating to see him up against the very best.

Fountains Windfall won like a well handicapped horse – which is exactly what he should have done.

That said, his jumping ‘technique’ looks almost random – and I would worry about him in a stronger race…

In the finale it was Jenkins who proved the best of the Henderson duo, with Charming Zen completely failing to fire…

At Warwick, the ground wasn’t soft enough for Flintham – and he could never get his field on the stretch.
Again, there will be other days for him.

Paisley Park briefly looked like he was going to collar Mr Whipped – though I suspect he winner was idling and he found more when challenged.

Whilst Missed Approach ran well to finish third in the Classic – behind Milansbar, who was certainly not an obvious one…

Finally, at Wetherby, Kayf Blanco would probably have won – if his jumping had been a bit slicker.

However, he missed out a few fences and that enabled Positively Dylan to get away from him.

Nothing got away from Westend Story – and he won like a horse with a stone in hand of his mark.
Finally, Granville Island was backed into 3/1: travelled like a dream; came to win his race – and then found nothing…

You don’t build up a 16 race losing streak by luck alone

TVB.