Daily write-up - Jan 20th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

It really does feel like the deep mid-winter (which his not too surprising, as that’s exactly what it is !).

There are plenty of Saturdays during the season, when I struggle to cover all of the races of interest – but that wasn’t the case today…

The Ascot card has stood up reasonably well – with most of the races quite competitive.

However, it’s a different story at Haydock and Taunton…

Across the 2 venues, there is only one race in which I was inclined to look for a tip (though I did manage to find one !).

As a consequence, it’s a relatively light day, tipping-wise – though I am hopeful that I’ve managed to find some horses who will run well (and hopefully, come home in front !).

With the late withdrawal of L Breuil, I’ve ended up with just the 3 tips on the day.

Here’s the rationale for them – plus my thoughts on the days other Big races…

Ascot

1:15 I’m pretty keen on Chef D’Equipe in this.

I tipped him on his most recent run, when winning at Sandown – and I’m optimistic that he’ll be able to repeat the dose today.

He’s running off a 6lb higher mark – but I think he will be able to cope with that.

More important, is that his jockey manages to get him settled in the early part of the race.

He barely achieved that last time, which is what I think made his win so creditable.

The horse was very keen early – but still had enough to hang on, up the Sandown hill, in heavy ground.

I thought that was a particularly good effort – and if he is more tractable in the early stages of todays race (and you would hope that might be the case), I can see him taking another step forward.

Pace in the race, will help – and although that’s not guaranteed, all of the runners bar Drumcliffe, are happy enough bowling along.

Drumcliffe has been installed race favourite - and whilst on ability, that could be right, he’s a very tricky looking ride, for an inexperienced amateur.

Crievehill is another potential danger – but again, he is a difficult ride and his handicap mark looks about right.

The other 4 have all got a chance – but equally, their chances aren’t that compelling.

This looks a very winnable race to me, and if Chef D’Equipe runs his race, I think he can take it.

1:50 La Bague au Roi is very much the one to beat in this.

On official ratings, she is at least 10lb superior to all of her rivals - and whilst she has to concede them 4lb, that still leaves her with a fair bit in hand.

She will also be better suited to 3 miles on soft ground than some of the others, so it could be argued that her price of 10/11, is not bad value.

Her trainer Warren Greatrex is particularly bullish about her – suggesting that he will be very disappointed if she is beaten.

The race should be run to suit, with Midnight Tune and Hitherjacques Lady (an eye catcher, who looks out of her depth today) likely to force the pace.

I would expect Noel Fehily to sit in behind and strike on with Le Baque au Roi, a good way from home.

The biggest danger to her, is probably if the race is run too quickly as she could then be vulnerable to a finisher.

In that scenario, Sainte LadyLime is probably the one most likely to take advantage.

That said, the most likely outcome is that Le Bague au Roi will prove herself the best mare in the race – and comfortably so…

2:55 The withdrawal this morning of Le Breiul, has taken away a lot of the interest from this race.

As those of you who follow things closely will know, I’m a big fan of the horse – and he looked to have ideal conditions today.

That said, if he’s not right (and apparently he’s bruised a foot), then I would much rather he didn’t run.
There will be other days for him…

In his absence, we are left with just Caid du Lin as our representative.

He was originally more of a saver  – though I do think that quite a strong case can be made for him.

Certainly, from a pure handicapping perspective, he has an excellent chance: and his stable is in very good form.

On his penultimate run, he finished second to A Hare Breath at Sandown – 4 lengths in front of Crossed my Mind.

He’s only 2lb worse off with that one today – yet he is a 5/1 shot.

In fairness, Crossed my Mind does now have a 7lb claimer in the saddle – but he was ridden last time by Barry Geraghty, and I would suggest that he is worth most (if not all !) of that 7lb.

Caid du Lin was well beaten on his only subsequent run – but that was in a very competitive hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas – and I’m prepared to forgive him that.

He’s stepped up in trip today – and the soft ground is also an unknown.

However, even with those uncertainties, I felt his form justified a small risk…

Of the others, then I couldn’t entertain Jenkins, who won a very weak race last Saturday.
He’s 11lb higher today – and racing over further.

James Bowen in the saddle, halves the weight rise – but doubtless kept his price down as well  ! I suspect he will drift close to the off…

Oxwich Boy is not so easily dismissed – and he could easily turn out to be the biggest dangers to Caid du Lin, in a race which probably isn’t as deep as the number of runners would suggest…

3:00 This wasn’t the most competitive of races when I looked at it yesterday – but three non runners this morning, have limited the interest even further.

Acting Lass looks the very much the one to beat – but he’s plenty short enough at 7/4, stepping up significantly in class.

I was impressed with him last time – but that was in a 4 runner race at Leicester, so it’s hard to gauge the form.

There is no denying his potential – it’s just a bit harder to be categoric that he can beat some much more experienced rivals.

Guitar Pete looks the main danger – but is also the second favourite.
He was fortunate to win at Cheltenham last time (the likely winner broke down) – but he still beat a very good field and is only up 5lb for the win.

He sets the race standard, based on that performance.

Robinshill could be interesting, stepping up in trip – but he’s risky enough and a price of 6/1 looks about right.

I’m not so keen on the other 3 – but in a 6 horse race, where tactics could be key, most things are possible…

3:35 All things being equal, Un de Sceaux will win this.

He’s a top class horse, who has been targeted at this race – and will have perfect conditions.

Generally, in those situations, there is only one result – though at odds of 2/5, no one is going to get rich backing him…

The main interest in the race for us, is with second favourite, Brain Power.

I tipped him for the Arkle chase, earlier in the season – and we are likely to find out today, whether there is any possibility of collecting on that bet !

It is very unusual for a novice like Brain Power, to contest a race like this – and it says much for the regard in which Nicky Henderson holds him, that he is prepared to set him such a challenge.

His presence in the line up, is actually a really positive thing – though whether he will be able to make his mark on the race, is a different matter…

In truth, if is just able to live with Un de Sceaux, then it will reflect very favourably on Brain Power - defeat wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster…

Ofcourse, a heavy defeat wouldn’t be good – and whilst the other 3 runners are fair animals, Brain Power should really beat them, if he is to be a realistic contender for the Arkle…

It’s a fascinating contest – which I have little inclination in trying to call (as we effectively have an interest in the race).

Hopefully Brian Power will run well and we will still have a live ante-post bet at the end of the day !

Haydock

2:05 This is a very tight looking contest – and with limited form available – and an ability to act on the ground having to be taken on trust - it’s not really one which you could get heavily involved in…

First Flow strikes me as the most likely winner.

He is officially the best horse in the race – he still has plenty of scope for improvement and is proven on heavy ground.

That said, he’s a 9/4 chance and all of his rivals can be given a chance of sorts…

From a value perspective, I am drawn to McGowans Pass.

He’s trained by Sandy Thompson – and he doesn’t tend to over-face his horses, which makes you think he has a fair amount of ability.

He’s also won in heavy ground at Ayr – so hopefully won’t have an issue with conditions.

At 25/1 in places, he could be worth a small speculative play – though it’s not a race you could be really confident about…

2:40 The question here, is whether The New One will be able to give 6lb to his 3 rivals and thereby complete a 4 timer in this race…

It’s a tough one to call, as he has got virtually nothing in hand of Ch’Tbello on official ratings – and has never been at his very best in heavy ground (despite a good record).

On the flip side however, he’s a horse who hates to lose – and if it comes down to a battle in the final furlong, you would want to be on his side.

My feeling is that Ch’Tbello will prove his superior today.

Harry Skelton tends to be tactically astute in these small field races – and that could be key.

Furthermore, at 10 years old – and with plenty of miles on the clock – The New Ones best days are probably behind him.

It’s not a betting race – but if forced, I would side with Ch’Tbello.

3:15 Although the Haydock card is generally a bit disappointing, there can be few complaints about this particular contest…

Of the 13 runners, then all bar a couple can be given a chance – with a least half a dozen boasting form which could easily be good enough to win.

Arguably, it’s a race best watched – but on a day when competitive races are thin on the ground, I’ve decided to get involved.

And the horse I’ve opted to side with is Tintern Theatre.

He won his most recent race, at Kempton over Christmas.

That was a good class race – and he won it well – so it’s a bit surprising that the handicapper saw fit to only raise him 4lb.

With Jamie Bargarys claim today, he’s effectively running from a mark just 1lb higher – and that makes him very attractive.

The attraction is added to, by the fact that he’s a young, progressive chaser – who would have gone very close to winning a good quality novice chase on his penultimate run, if he hadn’t fallen.

The falls puts a slight question mark over his jumping, but Haydock - like Kempton - is a flat track, and hopefully his jumping will stand the test.

The other question mark concerns his ability to handle the ground – but when he finished second to Le Rocher over hurdles at Uttoxeter a year ago, the ground was desperate – so hopefully he’ll cope with conditions.

If he does – and if his jumping holds up -  then despite the strength of opposition, I think he will take a lot of beating…

In terms of his rivals, then all bar the top 2 can be given a chance.

Walk in the Mill is probably the one I fear most – though the handicapper is gradually catching up with him.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Ascot 1:15 Chef D’Equipe 2pt win 3/1

Ascot 2:25 Caid du Lin 0.5pt EW 20/1

Hayd 3:15 Tintern Theatre 2pt win 6/1

Mentions

Ascot 1:50 Le Bague au Roi (P )

Ascot 3:00 Acting Lass (P )

Hayd 2:05 McGowans Pass (S )

Hayd 2:40 Ch’Tbello (C )