Daily write-up - Jan 25th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Warwick and Kelso in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

Outside of the festivals, it’s unusual to get a ‘Big race’ on a Thursday.

It’s a shame really, as with so little else going on, a Big mid week race can really command some focus.

It’s the Thyestes chase today. 

The race was first run in 1954 – with Arkle the most famous winner (1964) - closely followed by Jadanli in 2013

As is the case almost everywhere at the moment, the ground at Gowran will be desperate.

The fourth last fence is to be omitted – which is not something I can recall happening previously.

Conditions are likely to be equally testing at Kelso – with Warwick only a touch better.

Not a day for the faint hearted, that’s for sure !!

I’ve ended up with just the one tip on the day – in the big race.

However, I’ve also got some thoughts on a few of the days other races….

Gowran Park

1:50 I’m a little surprised to see Presenting Percy running in this – even though on official ratings, he’s very much the one to beat…

He did really well over hurdles last season, winning the Pertemps final at Cheltenham – but was switched to fences at the start of this season.

He won well on his debut at Galway; before disappointing next time at Punchestown.

He was then a very easy winner of a long distance chase at Fairyhouse.
I was also surprised that he ran in that race, as off a mark of 145, he would likely have gone close in a very valuable handicap (such as the Thyestes !).

His mark is now up to 157 over fences – which makes winning a handicap much harder.
I can therefore understand him running in a conditions race – I would just have expected it to be a novice chase (in preparation for his Cheltenham target).

Anyway, connections have opted for this – and in fairness, he’s got a favourites chance !

Certainly, I prefer his claims, to those of Lets Dance and Bacardys – whilst I also don’t understand why Diamond Cauchois is running in the race (as a win – or even a big run – will mess up his handicap mark – and hence his Cheltenham plans).

By a process of elimination, that means Alpha des Obeaux is likely to be Presenting Percys biggest danger – though he’s also been running over fences, so has a bit to prove, back over hurdles.

At a big price, I could give half a chance to Lieutenant Colonel.

He once had sufficient ability to win this – but has lost his way in recent years.

However, Gordon Elliot fits first time cheek pieces – and it’s interesting that Jack Kennedy rides him instead of Diamond Cauchois (who is much shorter in the betting).

In a race where there are question marks over every runner, he could be worth a tiny speculative play at 40/1.

3:00 Gordon Elliott has never won this race – but he saddles 6 runners this afternoon, including the top 3 in the market, so if that’s still the case at 3:15, he may come to the conclusion that it’s never going to happen !

Of his 6 runners, then Ucello Conti is the most solid.

He’s been placed in the 2 most recent runnings of the race – and must be a good bet to be placed again today.

I wouldn’t be rushing to back him to win, however…

Out Sam and Monbeg Notorious are both more interesting from a win perspective (but not as likely to be placed !).

The former is potentially very well handicapped, based on his UK form when with Warren Greatex. The booking of James Bowen is also particularly eye catching and it’s no surprise that he’s been installed race favourite.

Monbeg Notorious is almost as interesting…

He’s an unexposed novice, so it seems significant that Elliott is running him in the race.

Jack Kennedy in the saddle suggests that he is the stables number 1 – though the betting close to the off will likely confirm that…

Willie Mullins saddles a couple in the race: Pleasant Company and Isleofhopendreams.

Both can be given a chance – but equally, both look beatable…

The other one near the head of the betting is the Noel Meade trained A Genie in abottle – and he has got a chance.
Placed in Grade 1 company at Punchestown last spring, he doesn’t look badly handicapped off a mark of 150.

However, if you fancy him (which I do !), then you also have to fancy Call my Taxi.

Back in October, on only his second outing over fences, he was beaten 9 lengths  by A Genie in abottle at Galway.

Call my Taxi is 11lb better off today – but was also given an easier the race than the winner and has more scope for improvement,

In short, he looks to have a very good chance – which double figure quotes under-estimate…

Call my Taxi has run twice since the Galway race: firstly when running poorly in a grade 2 contest at Punchestown (though a good run would have messed up his handicap mark, which does make you wonder !).
He was then in the process of running well in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, until he fell…

That was unfortunate, as it would have enabled us to properly gauge his ability – but he travelled well until his departure, suggesting he is up to this kind of challenge.

Of the others: then I would expect Sumos Novios to run a big race – and like Ucello Conti, he could easily place (though I’ll be surprised if he wins).

Last years winner, Champagne West is handicapped to go close again – but has been badly out of form.

Check pieces are applied for the first time today – and if they do the trick, he is the one to beat.
Regardless, what they will do, is ensure that he leads early, so he is very much one to back pre-race and lay in running (for a free bet).

Similarly, I would expect Thunder and Roses to race prominently and trade a fair bit lower in running that his BSP.

Him coming home in front however, is a different matter…

It really is a very hard race to call – not helped by the Elliott battalions.

I can’t be confident about Call my Taxi – but I do think he has a chance of winning and I also think that chance has been under-estimated by the betting.

Warwick

2:00 There are some real characters running in this - and it’s therefore not a race that I could recommend getting heavily involved in !

Most of the runners have the ability to win it – if they chose to put their best foot forward.

The presence of The Artful Cobbler should ensure the race is run at a decent gallop – and the fact he is likely to get an uncontested lead, means he could be hard to beat (assuming he gets into a jumping rhythm).

That said, I don’t think he’s the best handicapped horse in the race – so he should be vulnerable…

I could be very interested in Yanmare – but whilst he has won at Warwick, I really don’t think it’s his track.
If you want to back him, then I would suggest in-running – half way down the back straight on the second circuit  – as he’s likely to look beaten at that point (before running on).

Whiskey Chaser is one of the more straightforward runners – and I think he is probably the one to beat.
He disappointed last time – but that was in a class 2 race.
He drops back to class 4 today – having won a similar race at Haydock on his penultimate outing.

He has drifted out to 5/1 this morning – and that strikes me as a very fair price…

That said, in a race where so many of the runners are hard to predict, confidence has to be limited…

2:35 I tipped Fingerontheswitch on his most recent run, when he was second at Haydock.

Arguably, he was a little unlucky that day, as he bumped into a horse who relished conditions – and also got the run of the race.

Off the same mark today, I could have again been interested in him – but he does seem to have landed himself in a particularly hot race !

Itsnonofubusiness and Crucial Role were both very impressive winners last week – and run today under penalties.
Both are theoretically 5lb ‘well-in’ – and therefore are likely to be tough to beat – assuming they have recovered from their exertions.

Polydora is another very interesting runner – though with a different profile (he’s a novice winner, stepping into handicap company).

I wouldn’t expect all 3 to run their race – but I’ll be surprised if all 3 don’t !

Conversely, I would expect Fingerontheswitch to run his race – so he could be placed…

In the circumstances, 12/1 is arguably not a bad price – each way – but with at least a couple more potentially dangerous runners in the race, it’s one I can resist…

3:45 Obviously, it’s impossible to be confident when assessing bumpers – as most of the runners have very little form (or no form !).

However, I am drawn to Granard in this – on his debut for Nigel Twiston Davies.

The horse ran twice in Irish PTPs last year – finishing runner up on the second of them.

However, the really attractive aspect with him, is his owners…

Isaac Souede and Simon Munir are having a stellar season, with just about every horse they own, demonstrating real quality.

Granard is their only runner at Warwick today – and the only ride for Daryl Jacobs.

It strikes me as quite interesting that Jacobs is at Warwick, rather than Gowran where he could presumably be riding Ucello Conti in the Thyestes (though that is speculation on my behalf).

He opened up at 6/1 last night – but is now a 4/1 shot.

However, that still strikes me as a price worth a risk, as the race doesn’t appear to have much depth…

Kelso

1:45 I’m a little perplexed at to why Uno Valeroso isn’t a short priced favourite for this…

On his most recent run, he looked like beating Ubaltique at Haydock, until he made a mess of the final fence.

Ubaltique powered clear in the run in – but Haydock and the mud are his conditions, so Uno Valeroso did well to push him as close as he did.

On his previous outing, Uno Vlaeroso beat Whitsundays by 2 lengths at Bangor.

That one reopposes today on 3lb better terms – but the weight is offset by the 3lb claim of Uno Valerosos jockey.

Regardless, I don’t think it would be sufficient for Whitsundays to reverse the form – so I find it strange that he is disputing favouritism.

The other 3 runners have all got chances of sorts – but their chances aren’t as strong as those of Uno Valeroso.

To my mind, Uno Valersos should be a 6/4 shot – or possibly less – so he’s quite attractive at 2/1…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Gwrn 3:00 Call my Taxi 1pt win 10/1

Mentions

Gwrn 1:50 Lieutenant Colonel (S )

Warw 2:00 Whiskey Chaser (O )

Warw 2:35 Fingerontheswitch (O )

Warw 3:45 Granard (S )

Kels 1:45 Uno Valeroso (P )