Daily write-up - Jan 13th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Warwick, Kempton and Wetherby in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

All 4 meetings are of a decent quality – and there are plenty of potential opportunities for bets at each of them.

However, there are only so many hours in the day, so I had little option other than to prioritise where I spent my time…

The majority of it went on Warwick and Kempton – though there are also a few races of interest at Wetherby.

The Punchestown meeting received little attention from me – primarily because the biggest races on the card are novice events which don’t really lend themselves to tipping.

It also doesn’t help that the bookmakers are both slow in pricing up the Irish races – and also build in big over-rounds (which make them unattractive from a betting perspective).

Ultimately, I ended up with 4 tips on the day.

I have plenty of other fancies as well – but getting decent prices on some of them just wasn’t possible.

In truth, I’ve taken slightly shorter than I would have liked on a couple of the tips – but that’s the world we now live in (‘value betting’ is a thing of the past !).

Hopefully I’ve chosen the right ones to get onside…

Here’s the rationale for the tips – plus thoughts on a few of the other races…

Kempton

1:30 I’m pretty keen on Mercian Prince in this…

He was an eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Stratford, early in November, when he finished third to the ill-fated Starchitect.

That was a very good run, as he tried to serve it up to a very well handicapped rival and only gave best after jumping the last.

On the back of that run, he was sent off at just 6/1 for the Grand Sefton at Aintree – but that proved too much of a test for him.

He’s been given over a month to recover from that – and finds himself in much calmer waters today – and running from a pound lower mark.

He strikes me as a horse who has still got plenty of improvement in him – and I’ll be surprised if he can’t defy his current mark of 134.

In terms of his rivals, then The Tailgater is the one I fear most.
He was a good winner at Doncaster last time – and a 4lb rise in the weights for that win, doesn’t look overly punitive.

At a price, I would have saved on him – but he is now contesting favouritism and I prefer the chance of Mercian Prince.

Of the others, then Rothman is potentially well handicapped – though he tends to find one too good.

Hopefully today, that one will be Mercian Prince !

2:05 This is a fascinating little race – but the outcome will likely depend on the state of the ground and how ‘ready’ the various runners are, to do themselves justice…

If it was simply down to ability and weight carried, them God’s Own would be a cracking bet at 5/2.
However, he has a marked preference for quick ground – and this is likely to be a prep for a spring campaign.

In the circumstances, he couldn’t be backed (though equally, he’s not easy to oppose).

Given soft ground and an uncontested lead, then Smad Place would be the one to beat.

However, the ground may not be soft enough for him – and he could face competition for the lead from Josses Hill and possibly Art Mauresque.

He’s still probably the value call in the race, at 5/1…

Waiting Patiently is the race favourite – but that’s more on potential than it is on achievement.

That said, he is likely to have the race run to suit – and should have no issue with the ground.

It’ll be a little surprising if the other 3 are good enough – not least because victory for any of them, would mess up their handicap mark (and potentially future opportunities).

I suspect that the betting will have the race sussed by the off.

Support for God’s Own would be significant - as it would suggest he is ready to do himself justice.

If it doesn’t materialise, then Waiting Patiently may well be able to pounce late, on Smad Place (though I’m unlikely to be bet on it).

2:40 This is a ferocious looking handicap, which arguable is best left alone.
However, I’ve always liked a challenge..!

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of the market leaders come home in front.

For what it’s worth, I like Diese des Bieffes best – but River Frost, William Henry and Topofthegame, can all be given good chances.

The trouble is, with the race looking so competitive, I would struggle to take a single figure price about anything…

Red Indian is quite tempting  - and 12/1 is a fair price on him.

Whilst I’m surprised to see I Shot the Sheriff as big as 25/1. I would expect him to travel well in the race – and he could certainly be one for an in running play.

However, if there is to be a big priced winner, then I’m hopeful it will be Wishfull Dreaming…

He was trained by Philip Hobbs last season and looked a horse going places, when hacking up at Chepstow on his seasonal debut.

However, he didn’t go on from that and ended the season with a couple of particularly disappointing runs…

He moved stable during the summer - and is now trained by Olly Murphy.

That’s very interesting, as Murphy did us a big favour, just before Christmas when producing  Hunters Call to win at Ascot.

That was also on the horses stable debut – demonstrating that Murphy is capable of both getting one ready first time and taking a big handicap.

The particularly interesting thing with Wishfull Dreaming, is that he produced his best form, first time out last seasons.
In fact, if you ignored his other runs last season (!)  he would likely be disputing favouritism for this – even if still trained by Philip Hobbs.

Clearly he is speculative – but I get the feeling he has been targeted at this race and at 20/1 he is definitely worth a small play.

3:15 In some respects, it’s very tempting to take on the novice, Fountains Windfall in this…

He has been installed a short price favourite (5/4) despite having fallen on his 2 most recent runs – the last time, over todays course and distance…

The trouble is, that was in the Grade 1 Feltham chase – and he was going like the winner at the time.

It was also only 4 fences from home – and his jumping to that point had been fine.

The eventual winner of the race, was Black Corton – and he is rated 155.

Therefore, off a mark of 146 Fountains Windfall could easily have a stone in hand.
If that is the case – and his jumping holds up – he should win easily…

I still might be tempted to get involved in the race – each way – but the one most likely to take advantage if Fountain Windfall disappoints, is Ballyalton.

However, he is very dependant on ground (he needs it quick) – and is not guaranteed to stay the 3 mile trip.

In short, he’s not rock solid either !

The other 4 runners look pretty exposed – so there is little temptation to side with any of them.

It’s not impossible that one of them could win – but they will need the market principals to under-perform…

The most likely outcome is that Fountain Windfall makes all.

If you are able to secure around 6/4 on him at any point, then that would seem a decent bet…

3:45 This is a weak looking race and it will most likely to go to one of the 2 Nicky Henderson horses which head the weights (and the betting !).

Charming Zen is by far the most attractive of the pair, with James Bowen on board – but he is making his seasonal debut and his debut for Henderson, so a fair bit has to be taken on trust.

He was a 6/4 shot last night – but has drifted to 5/2 this morning, which may (or may not !) be significant.

Jenkins has become a disappointing horse, but he is dropping down the handicap –and dropping in class. He also gets blinkers applied for the first time today.

He was a 4/1 shot last night – but is 11/4 now, which again, may be significant…

Outside the pair, there is little of interest.

The exception is Maquisard, who showed up well on his debut for Gary Moore at Kempton over Christmas.

He raced much too freely that day, so will need to settle better today.

However, he gave the impression that he possesses a fair bit of talent – so if it can be harnessed, he could go well.

For today, he’s possibly best as an in running play (his enthusiastic style, is likely to catch the eye of in running players).

Warwick

1:15 This doesn’t look the strongest of races, and I think it is worth taking a chance on the outsider of the field, Somchine.

He’s performed very poorly on his 2 runs so far this season - but as a result his handicap mark has dropped a couple of pounds.

More than that, Andrew Thorton is replaced in the saddle by Daniel Sansom – and that effectively gives him another 7lb off his mark, which could make him far more competitive….

Sansom was in the saddle, when the horse ran its 2 best races last season: winning at Hereford and then finishing third in a class 1 event at Ayr.

The latter was probably a career best performance, with him looking likely to win, approaching the last, before weakening out of things.

He races off a 3lb higher mark that day, so he’s certainly not handicapped out of things today.
The other particularly interesting thing with him, is the fitting of a first time tongue tie.

If that has the desired effect, I can see him running a very big race…

In terms of his rivals, then whilst all of them can be given a chance, non of them really stand out.

Swift Crusader is probably the right favourite – but he looks beatable.

If Somchine bounces back to form, then I think he could take a bit of beating (the price is just a bonus !)

1:50 This is another open looking race, where victory for any of the 5 runners wouldn’t come as a huge surprise.

Duel at Dawn has been installed favourite at 9/4 – but makes limited appeal at that price.

In fact, I’d be more inclined to side with the horse he beat at Exeter in November – Flintham.

Flintham was making his seasonal debut that day – and looked the most likely winner turning in.
However, lack of fitness told up the home straight and he eventually finished well beaten.

With that run under his belt, I could see him turning the table s today – particularly as the Warwick track could suit him well (assuming he tries to make all).

4/1 is probably a perfectly reasonable price, particularly if the ground is soft – though it is difficult to quantify the ability of Ms Parfoit, Big River and Western Climate – and that makes it difficult to get involved with the race.

2:25 I’m pretty keen on Black Ivory in this.

He beat Le Breuil in a 4 runner race at Aintree last time – and I hold that one in the highest regard.

In fairness, Le Breuil was attempting to give 19lb to Black Ivory and he may not have been suited by the heavy ground – though that said, Black Ivory cantered all over him and a 6lb rise for the win, looks relatively lenient.

More than that, Jamie Hamilton takes over in the saddle today – and his 3lb claim will effectively half the increase.

I like the fact that Black Ivory still sits towards the bottom of the handicap – and is clearly a progressive animal, who is very much on the upgrade.

In terms of dangers, then arguably the biggest 3 (Prime Venture, No Hassle Hoff and The Organist), are all at the top of the handicap and have to give around a stone in weight to Black Ivory.

That is likely to prove a big ask…

Of the others, then our old friend, Kris Spin, should run a good race – but is likely to find younger legs a bit too quick for him.

I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see Fly Camp, Cobolobo or Malapie run well: whilst Templeross would be a danger to all, if recapturing his best form.

I’ve tipped him the last twice he’s run – so am a little wary of passing on him today – however, he showed absolutely nothing last time, so something major will need to have changed if he is going to figure.

I would suggest monitoring the betting with him – if he gets backed late, then it is worth covering stakes.

3:00 I think Count Meribel could arguably be favourite for this – which makes him quite attractive at a price of 3/1.

Certainly he is the most ‘street wise’ runner in the field – and I will be very surprised if he doesn’t run his race.

That should to see him go close to winning – though there is a distinct chance that one of the less exposed runners could prove too good for him...

It’s guesswork as to which one that might be though – with all 5 of the other runners thoroughly unexposed.

The market likes Mr Whipped best – and as he is trained by Nicky Henderson, he has to be feared.

11/8 seems an awfully short price – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get even shorter, if confections really fancy him.

Paisley Park is the one that I liked most – and it’s interesting that he has been well backed this morning.

He beat Vision des Flos at Hereford last time – and that is potentially good form, if it can be taken at face value.

At around 8/1, he could be worth a tiny speculative play…

3:35 I spent quite a lot of time looking at this race – and came to the conclusion that nothing was worth a bet !
I make Missed Approach just about the most likely winner – but he is 6/1 favourite and I don’t see any margin in that.

He ran really well last time in the Ladbroke Trophy and has been dropped a very generous 6lb on the back of that run.

However, he didn’t get home that day – so he will need to race less keenly, if he is going to stay the extra 5 furlongs today.

In fairness, he may just do that. He was wearing first time blinkers at Newbury – and they have been dispensed with today.
The trouble is, he was wearing blinkers to liven him up – so there is also a chance he will go back to sleep again today !

Aside from him, I case of sorts can be made for most of the runners…

In the ground isn’t too soft, then Cogry will have a good chance: whilst soft ground will suit Goodtoknow.

Ballycross is another one who looks interesting – but has also got quite a few question marks over him.

There are also a couple of eye catchers in the race in the shape of Russe Blanc and Crosspark.

Both can be given some kind of chance, without looking the most likely winners of the race…

The issue with Russe Blanc is that he needs very soft ground – and his jumping has become an issue; Crosspark also needs soft ground – though the biggest concern with him, is his unproven stamina.

On balance, it’s a race best watched...

Wetherby

2:15 I was hoping to take a chance on Kayf Blanco in this.

He’s unproven over fences, but is potentially well handicapped, based on his hurdles form.

His jumping is a worry, but in a small field, he may well get away with it.

He opened at 7/1 last night – and I would have tipped him at that price.

However, he was half that price by the time I could tip him this morning – and I can’t justify the risk at 7/2…

The trouble is, he faces a couple of decent opponents, in Just Cameron and Bun Doran.
The former sets the standard having won this race from a pound higher mark 12 months ago.

He’s in good form as well, as he won last time out at Wetherby – tho on the flip side, he’s not going to be improving, at 11 years of age…

Bun Doran is the most likely winner - and the right favourite.

He ran really well on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham last time – and if he’s come on for that run, he will take a lot of beating this afternoon, off the same mark.

It is likely that Bun Doran will come out on top – but if Kayf Blanco drifts to 5/1 or bigger, he would be worth a small interest.

2:50 I don’t think this race is anywhere near as competitive as the numbers imply – and I’ll be a bit surprised if it’s not won by either Westend Story or Jaleo.

The trouble is they dominate the betting – and I can’t see any value in either one…

Of the pair, I slightly prefer the chances of Westend Story – even though he has more to prove.

He has been a beaten favourite on all 4 of his runs over hurdles – which suggests he is one to be wary of. However, I think it’s more a question of waiting for the penny to drop…

He looks well handicapped to me off a mark of 124 – and it seems significant that Richard Johnson has gone to Wetherby to ride him.

I would have taken a risk at 7/2 – but 11/4 just seems a touch too short (considering the guess work).

There is far less guesswork involved with Jaleo.

He looks fairly handicapped on a mark of 133 – particularly as he still has scope for progression.
He ran a nice race last time, suggesting that he is coming to the boil and if Westend Story isn’t up to the job, then I think he will be able to capitalise.

3:25 Granville Island is the final ‘nearly tip’ at Wetherby !

The story with him, is very similar to the story with Kayf Blanco.

He’s not won for 4 years – but has slid down to a mark from which he can win.

His Achilles heal is his jumping – but if he gets that right, he will take a lot of beating.

He was 7/1 last night – but 7/2 by the time I could tip this morning.

That’s a very short price for a horse on a losing run of 16 !

Again, there are dangers in the race – though this time, I think the biggest danger is Granville Island not performing…

As with Kayf Blanco, if he drifts to around 5/1, he is worth a play – but at 7/2, I can’t get involved…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 1:30 Mercian Prince 2pt win 3/1

Kemp 2:40 Wishfull Dreaming 0.75pt win 20/1

Warw 1:15 Somchine 0.5pt win 25/1

Warw 2:25 Black Ivory 2pt win 5/1

Mentions

Kemp 2:05 God’s Own (C )

Kemp 3:15 Fountains Windfall (P )

Kemp 3:45 Charming Zen (S )

Warw 1:50 Flintham (O )

Warw 3:00 Paisley Park (S )

Warw 3:35 Missed Approach (P )

Weth 2:15 Kayf Blanco (P )

Weth 2:50 Westend Story (S )

Weth 3:25 Granville Island (P )