Daily write-up - Jan 1st

Happy New Year !

There are 7 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Musselburgh, Exeter, Catterick and Fakenham in the UK – plus Fairyhouse and Tramore in Ireland.

It’s another busy day – with the days flagship meeting taking place at Cheltenham.

Unfortunately, heavy ground has seriously impacted field sizes and once again, it’s tricky finding much to tip...

When there are small fields, tactics and luck become much more important: as does getting the optimum price !

Unfortunately, it is a hazard of NH racing, where the state of the ground can reach extremes which don’t suit many horses…

All this said, I have (eventually !) managed to find 2 tips on the day – and I’m keen on  them both.

There are also a few Mentions – and I’m quite keen on some of them as well !

Here’s the rationale behind the tips – and my thoughts on the days other main races.

Cheltenham

12:15 This is a hard race to call – but not because of the field size !

There are 8 runners – though realistically, it looks likely to concern the 6 at the head of the betting.

Choosing between them isn’t easy, as all have scope for improvement – and most are unproven in the conditions…

Springtown Lake sets the standard on his second to On the Blind Side in a Grade 2 event at Sandown – however, he is yet to race on heavy ground (though he has run well on soft).

Twice raced Ainchea has the most potential – particularly as he is a bother to the very decent One Track Mind.

Tikkanbar is the one most likely to be suited by conditions – he’s already won on heavy ground and is at least a year older (and hence more mature) than his main rivals.

Like Ainchea, Onefortheroadtom, has plenty of scope for improvement, after just the 2 runs: whilst Aye Aye Charlie is clearly well regarded by connections who have plenty of decent horses.

I fancy Whatmore least of the main 6  - but as he’s the longest price of the sextet, that doesn’t help greatly !

If you do want to get involved with the race, then Aye Aye Charlie at 8/1, is probably the best bet – but only as a ‘value’ call…

12:50 There is a really disappointing turn out for this, with just the 5 runners.

One of them is actually an eye catcher – in the shape of Russe Blanc.
He caught the eye on his penultimate run at Carlisle, before unseating his jockey, on his most recent run at Haydock.

I tipped him that day and whilst it was still a long way from home when the unseat happened – I wasn’t convinced that he was going like a winner…
On the flip side, he will absolutely revel in todays conditions – and that won’t be the case for all of his rivals. He also has a good man on top, in the shape of Harry Skelton.

I could be interested in him again at a price – but not at 5/2.

In fairness, the opposition is so poor, I can understand the price.

Vyta du Roc is favourite – and whilst he has the class to win, he is also running out of excuses.

Cheek pieces could help – but the heavy ground may not…

I couldn’t entertain Southfield Theatre today…

I was very tempted by him last time, but he looked like a horse is decline. He might get the run of the race today – but he did then and still wasn’t anywhere near good enough to win.

Ballymalin has a definite chance.

He arrives on the back of a poor run – but is relatively unexposed and not badly treated, based on his hurdles form.

I even briefly toyed with tipping Lamb or Cod.

He is very well handicapped – and in such a weak race, that could be significant.

However, he has been horribly out of form – and may have an issue with the ground…

If there is a bet in the race, it is probably Balymalin at 5/1 – though he does come with plenty of risks…

1:25 As with the previous race, there are only 5 runners in this  - but unlike the previous race, this looks a cracker !

I guess it all comes down to expectations and quality.

You expect decent sized fields in handicaps – even if you don’t always get the quality. However, small fields are often the norm in novice chases – you just hope you’ll get to see some good horses.

And there are certainly some good horses in this – in fact, there are some very good horses !

Chief amongst them is Willoughby Court.

He won the Neptune Novice hurdle at last years festival – and whilst he didn’t really look a natural on his chasing debut at Huntington, he looked much better next time, when defeating Yanworth at Newbury.

He really is a horse you can take to: not only is he very talented – but he also has a tremendous attitude.

That’s a rare combination and one that could well see him reach the top of the ladder…

In terms of pure ability, then Yanworth is arguably his superior – so the fact he receives 5lb today, has to make him of interest.

There’s not a lot wrong with his attitude either – but his jumping technique leaves a fair bit to be desired.

An ability to navigate fences quickly, is what separates the good from the great in this game – and on evidence so far, Yanworth is not going to be a great…

It says much for the ability of the top 2 in the market, that a horse of Ballyandys ability can be backed at 5/1 – but I think the price is about right.

Similarly, Ami Desbois and Sizing Tennessee are talented animals – but they aren’t as talented as either of the market leaders….

Of course, this is a small field nonce chase, which will be run on desperate ground – so the ‘lottery’ element is bigger than ideal.

However, both Willoughby Court and Yanworth can handle heavy ground: whilst the former is likely to make the running (assuming nothing else wants to).

Provided their jumping is up to scratch, I think they will prove too classy for the other 3.

It has to be a watching race – though if Willoughby Court drifts to 2/1, he would certainly be of some interest.

2:00 I do like the look of Top Gamble in this.

He finished third in the corresponding race, 12 months ago, off a mark 5lb higher than he races off today.

Furthermore, he has James Bowen in the saddle today.
A lot can be made of the value of claimers: generally they get an allowance to offset the fact they aren’t as good as the more experienced jockeys – but with him it just isn’t the case.

His 5lb claim is a gift – and any horse he rides is effectively 5lb well in.

That being the case, then it’s hard not to argue that Top Gamble is very nicely handicapped off what is effectively a mark of 149.

However, more than that: he’s a horse who needs very soft ground to be seen at his best – and a horse who operates well around Cheltenham.

He’s also extremely consistent - and whilst he is around 10 lengths off being top class, he is non-the-less very talented.

With ticks in just about every box, I can’t see him not running a very big race.

 I’m very hopefully that he can win – but at 5/1, I think it is worth insuring the bet, by backing him EW, as he really should finish in the frame, at least…

There are a few in the race who could be capable of putting in a performance which could beat him – but non of them have his reliability.

Viconte de Noyer is back on his last winning mark and ran an eye catching race on his seasonal debut – though has disappointed on his only subsequent run.
Burtons Well is another eye catcher in the race.
He should relish conditions - but hasn’t been seen for over 2 months, which tempers enthusiasm a little.

Nigel Twiston Davies trains the other 2 of major interest: Splash of Ginge and Ballyhill.

The former won the Betvictor Gold cup on his penultimate run – and still looks feasibly handicapped off a mark 5lb higher: whilst the latter is a novice, with plenty of scope of improvement (even if there are question marks over both his ability to jump round – and to go on the ground).

I don’t think that Top Gamble is a certainty to win - but I will be very surprise (and disappointed !) if he doesn’t run a very big race and I expect him to go extremely close.

2:35 There are some young, improving stayers in opposition in this, and it’s not easy to choose between them.

Arthurs Gift is favourite – and probably sets the standard on his last time course and distance win in a similar event.

He’s up 6lb for that victory - but he was ultimately quite a comfortable winner, so should still be competitive off his new mark.

I was really taken by Red Rising, when he won his most recent race at Southwell.

He was backed as if defeat was out of the question that day – and looked like a very good horse.

He’s not an easy one to quantify – but it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if he was up to todays higher grade.

Almost exactly the same is true, with Lovenormoney – who was just as impressive, when winning at Chepstow (and beating a recent winner in the process).

Cases can also be made for Boyhood and Skipthecuddles, so it’s a competitive enough race…

Arthurs Gift is the solid option, as he’s done it before.

However, with at least 4 credible rivals – 2 of which could be big improvers – there’s not a lot of temptation to get involved at a best price of 3/1.

3:10 Whilst there are 8 runners in this, I’ll be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top 4 in the betting.

More than that, I’m not overly keen on Old Guard, who I think could struggle on the very heavy ground.

The fact that Bryony Frost takes the ride – but is unable to claim her 5lb – is also a negative for his chances.

As a consequences, I think there are 3 to focus on: Agrapart, Wholestone and Colins Sister.
Agrapart won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and I would expect him to run well again, on ground that will suit.

However, the handicapper makes him a 5lb inferior horse to Wholestone – and he has to give him 3lb. Like Old Guard, he is also ridden by a jockey who can’t take advantage of her claim.

In short, he has a fair bit on, according to the formbook…

Which leaves us with 2:

And quite handily, the 2 in question, have already met twice before this season.

At Wetherby in November, Colins Sister beat Wholestone by 2 lengths, in receipt of 7lb.

At Newbury, last month, she finished 4 lengths in front of him – this time in receipt of just 4lb.

She receives 4lb again today – and whilst I think that the Wetherby form line is the more reliable – it still has Colins Sister coming out on top…

Furthermore, she will absolutely love the heavy ground – and her stable remains in very good form.

In fact, the only negatives I can see, are the fact that she’s never previously run at Cheltenham – and the drop back in trip to 2m4f.

I can’t really see this being a speed test though, so I think she will take a lot of beating…

In the old days, she would have been a Top Pick.

In todays new world, they don’t exist, so she’s just a tip.

Arguably, I should have staked her more aggressively – but I’ll stick with the 2pts a and see how things go !

Suffice to say, I think she should win…

3:45 It’s always impossible to be adamant about bumpers – as there is invariably minimal form to work with.

However, I do quite like the look of Kingofthecotswolds in this…

It strikes me as significant that he was sent off as favourite to beat Acey Milan, on his racecourse debut at Wincanton, early in December.

He wasn’t up to the job – but he didn’t run badly to finish fourth.
He re-opposes the winner today – but will no longer have an experience disadvantage.

Ofcourse this is not a 2 horse race – but Acey Milan is second favourite at 3/1.

Kingofthecotswolds is a much bigger price, at 12/1 – which according to the form book, is right.

However, I just have a feeling that he may be able to improve sufficiently to go very close this afternoon.

Musselburgh

1:40 Upsilon Bleu was an eye catcher last time out at Ascot – and I would have quite liked to tip him in this.

I tipped him in the corresponding race 12 months ago when he was second – but he was a 12/1 shot that day.

You can’t beat 11/4 on him this afternoon – and whilst that’s probably about right, the race is a bit too trappy for me to get involved with him.

He faces 3 main dangers, in the shape of Max Ward, Knockgraffon and Indian Temple – and whilst Upsilon Bleu is by far the most solid of the 4, victory for any of the others, isn’t impossible…

Both Max Ward and Knockgraffon still retain potential for improvement: whilst there is a chance that Indian Temple could get an uncontested lead…

The other slight niggle, is that Upsilon Bleu is probably a better horse at the minimum trip.

I got very close to tipping him – and certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing him – I just feel there are sufficient doubts, considering the price, for me to get officially involved…

2:15 Silver Concord is another who I could have tipped – at a bit more of a price…

The winner of the Champion bumper at the 2014 Cheltenham festival, when trained by Dermot Weld, he’s experienced a second coming this year, under the guidance of Keith Dalglish.

In fairness, he’s only won 2 modest novice hurdles – but he has won them with any amount in hand, certainly suggesting that a lot of the old ability remains.

I guess we could find out exactly how much this afternoon – but in truth, he’s unlikely to need it all, in order to win…

That said, he does face another difficult to quantify one, in the shape of Sir Chauvelin.

He’s not run over hurdles for nearly 2 years – but during that time has developed into a useful flat horse.
He’s now rated 95 on the flat – suggesting that his hurdles mark of 125 is lenient (a comparative hurdle rating would be around 140).

Traditional Dancer, Dear Sire and Beeno can all be given a chance if both the market leaders under-perform – but it would be hard to back any of the 3 against 2 rivals who could be a long way ahead of their current marks.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chelt 2:00 Top Gamble 1pt EW 5/1

Chelt 3:10 Colins Sister 2pt win 5/2

Mentions

Chelt 12:15 Aye Aye Charlie (O )

Chelt 12:50 Ballymalin (S )

Chelt 1:25 Willoughby Court (O )

Chelt 2:35 Arthurs Gift (O )

Chelt 3:45 Kingofthecotswolds (S )

Muss 1:40  Upsilon Bleu (P )

Muss 2:15 Silver Concord (S )