Daily write-up - Jan 6th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Chepstow, Sandown and Wincanton in the UK – plus Cork in Ireland.

The high-light of the days racing, is the re-arranged Welsh National meeting, at Chepstow.

Originally scheduled for December 27th, it was abandoned due to a water-logged track.

I’ll be surprised if things are much better today !

Conditions are likely to be just as testing at the 3 other venues – so it’ll definitely be a case of survival of the fittest…

In a way though, that actually makes things a little easier, as ground wise, you know where you stand.

Ofcourse, what is more difficult to legislate for, is late non runners, when connections go cold on running their horses in unsuitable conditions…

Hopefully that won’t cause us any issues !

With regard to tips, then I’ve issued 5 on the day, spread across 4 races.

They weren’t difficult to find – though issuing remains tricky.

I noticed that one or two of them were backed on BF, to below generally available bookmaker prices, as soon as I issued.

Please resist from doing this, as it messes things up for everyone (as the bookmakers then just the cut price).

I only advise ‘Fair’ prices - and generally stick to the bigger races.
The answer is patience – not chasing.

Prices generally drift back to where I’ve recommended…

Anyway, here is the rationale for the tips – plus my thoughts on the days other big races…

Sandown

12:45 Hitherjacques Lady was an eye catcher on her seasonal debut at Ascot last month.

She led for most of that contest, just giving best after the second last (when possibly, lack of fitness found her out).
She must have a decent chance in this contest, as she could get the run of the race and has winning form in heavy ground.

However, she is the lowest rated horse in the field – which tempers enthusiasm (as does the form of the Oliver Sherwood yard).

I did actually consider getting involved with the race because I wanted to take on favourite Dusky Legend. However that one was declared a non runner, first thing this morning which took away the main angle.

In truth, I could make a half case for all 4 runners – but Angels Antics is the most appealing.

I thought she ran well last time at Haydock – and I think she will relish conditions.

The fact that Davy Russell is over for just the one ride, also adds to her attraction.

A best price of 5/2 however, isn’t sufficiently attractive to get involved.

1:20 I was quite taken by Chef D’Equipe when he ran in a race over todays course, a month ago.
That was his first run over fences in this country, having previously run twice over hurdles, since his purchase from France.

He seemed to relish the return to the bigger obstacles (he had won over fences in France), and looked the most likely winner, until his stamina gave out in the closing stages.

He’s dropped half a mile in tarp today, and I think that could prove crucial (particularly on very soft ground).

He’s been dropped 2lb to a mark of 127, and I’ll be surprised if he can’t be competitive off that rating.

Little Jon can certainly been competitive off his current rating of 123.

That’s a full stone below his last winning mark – though admittedly, that was over 2 years ago.

However, he showed definite signs of a revival last time out at Newbury, in a better contest than todays.

Ultimately, he only finished fifth – but it was only his second run back after his summer break (so he may have needed it) and he travelled strongly until the fourth last.

He should have no issue with conditions – and if he is back to anything like his best, then he has to go close…

The 3 horses heading the market: Theos Charm, Perfect Pirate and Bekkensfirth, all have enough to prove, considering their prices.

Theos Charm is potentially well handicapped – but there is a question mark over his ability to jump fences (and Sandown is quite a test); whilst Bekkensfirth is on the comeback trail, after 2 years on the sidelines (prior to that, he had looked a decent animal).

Perfect Pirate is probably the most dangerous looking of the 3 - but he’s only run once over fences, and navigating Sandown in open company could prove a challenge for him.

3:00 There may be a big field for this, but it’s nearly impossible to look beyond Cloudy Too…

He ran in the corresponding race 12 months ago – off a mark 10lb higher.

He also ran a reasonable race, only weakening after jumping the second last, to eventually finish fifth.

All of the horses who finished ahead of him that day, reoppose this afternoon – but all are significantly worse off at the weights:

Winner, Pete the Feat, is 16lb worse off; runner up, Theatrical Star, is 13lb worse off; third placed Loose Chips, is 11lb worse off; and fourth placed Gas Line Boy, is 13lb worse off.

In a race like this, where all of the runners are probably past their best, ratings aren’t the be all and end all – but they do point strongly in favour of Cloudy Bay.

More than that however, he should relish today conditions – and looks to have been layed out for the race.

He’s always been a horse who has thrived on bottomless ground. The high-light of his career so far, was a win in the Peter Marsh chase at Haydock in 2016, when the ground was virtually unraceable.

His 3 runs so far this season, all seem to have been with today in mind.

A debut over hurdles: a run in a qualifier for this race – and a final outing to get a few more pounds off his mark.

In short, he looks a very well handicapped horse, running in ideal conditions – who has been targeted at the race.

In fairness, he won’t be the only runner to have been targeted at the race – such is its value.
However, the ground has gone against a few of them (including Benbens and Fox Appeal).

Gas Line Boy looks the biggest danger – as he has been in top form this season.

However, he is priced up short enough considering he is held on the book by Cloudy Too.

Houblon Des Obeaux and Vino Griego are 2 other potential dangers – but I’m happy enough to just side with Cloudy Too.

3:35 It’s interesting to see a couple of horses who have been winning Lunchtime Naps on the Midweek blog, running in this.

The first is Our Merlin, who showed massive improvement when racking up a hatrick of wins, early in December.

They were all in low grade races – and he takes a significant hike in class today – accompanied by a ratings rise of 23lb since his last win (37lb since the first win – when I napped him !).

I’ve no idea whether he will be up to the task – but it will be fascinating to see…

Clayton is the other runner of major interest.

He won last time at Lingfield and has back class which suggests he should be able to cope with a 3lb rating rise.

He should also have no issue with the ground, so I would expect him to run well.

Either one of them could be up to wining – but so too could Call me Lord and Drops of Jupiter (to name but 2).

I would have liked to have taken a risk on Our Merlin (there is no way of knowing how good he might be) – but 9/2 is a bit too short in such an open race.

Chepstow

1:35 On the desperate ground, it’s quite tempting to take on We Have a Dream, in this…

Whilst he has the best form in the race, that may count for little on very heavy ground.

Sussex Ranger is also unproven on heavy.
He looks as if he may handle it – but is also a relatively short price, considering the uncertainty…

Famous Milly is likely to handle the ground – and she receives 7lb from her rivals.
In the circumstances, that makes her quite tempting.

The only trouble is, her form isn’t the strongest, so you are relying on conditions to level things out.

Mercenaire is the other one worthy of consideration - though with a win on his sole UK start, he’s impossible to get a proper handle on.

Famous Milly each way, was tempting – but there was just a bit too much guesswork involved to draw me in.

2:05 This looks a near impossible race to call, with any confidence.

There are 20 runners and a decent case could be made for at least a dozen of them.

For what it’s worth, Final Nudge is the one I would side with, if forced to choose one.

He has a touch of class and should relish the conditions. He’s also fairly handicapped…

Bishops Road is the other one who I’ll probably back myself.
I was very keen on him for the corresponding race 12 months ago – and have tipped him on his last 4 runs !

I think he has a fair chance today – but there is no margin in a price of 12/1 in such an open race…

At bigger prices, I wouldn’t dismiss veteran Raz de Maree – particularly with James Bowen in the saddle.

He finished second in the race last year – behind the top class Native River.
I doubt there is a horse of Native Rivers class in the race today, and from a mark just 1lb higher I would be very keen on Raz de Maree, if it weren’t for the fact that he’s now 13 (which should be too old to win a race of this nature).

The final one worthy of a mention is Firebird Flyer.
He finished runner up in the race 2 years ago – and off a 3lb higher mark.

He had been badly out of form until running well over hurdles on his most recent outing.

He’s 11 years old – which is older than ideal. However, that is factored into the price and at 40/1 he may still be capable of repaying an EW interest.

2:45 I had planned to tip Chef D’Oeuvre in this, when the meeting was originally scheduled to take place – and I’ve decided to stick with him, even though the make up of the race has changed quite significantly…

The most significant difference, is the presence of top weight Shantou Bob.

He won this race 12 months ago, off a mark 8lb lower – but a 7lb claimer in the saddle effectively reduces that increase.

I tipped him on his most recent outing at Cheltenham, when the ground wasn’t really soft enough for him – but he ran on late to take fourth place.

I could certainly be interested in him again today – but was put off by his price (it was 4/1).

The other complication, is that both Shantou Bob and Chef D’Oeuvre are trained by Warren Greatrex.

It’s impossible to know whether there is any significance in them both running in the same race – but it does look as if its been more of a target for Chef D’Oeuvre and an after thought for Shantou Bob.

The presence of Shantou Bob also helps Chef D’Oeuvre, as it means he has only to carry 10st4lb (he would have to carry 10lb more if he wasn’t running).

In truth, if there was a bit more juice in the price of Shantou Bob, I would probably have tipped them both – but his price was too tight to take that option.

In terms of Chef D’Oeuvre, then he’s a horse who relishes heavy ground – and who’s potentially well handicapped on his return to hurdles.

He looks well capable of winning a race such as this.

Of the others, then Court Frontier looks the most interesting – particularly as he has been well backed.

He was subject to a massive gamble when winning over the course last year – and with James Bowen in the saddle, shouldn’t be underestimated this afternoon.

Cork

3:05 This was a tough race for me to tip in, as not only is it not a ‘Big’ race, it is also being run in Ireland (and so the market will be particularly sensitive).

I should maybe only tip in races like this, later in the day – but as I’ve not set things up that way, it’s something I will need to look at changing for next season…

The issue I had with Tinos Tank, was the same one I had with Ellens Way, on Boxing day.

The horse was an eye catcher last time out – and in what look like ideal conditions today, I think it will take a lot of beating.

In fairness, it’s hard to be adamant about the chances of a horse in a race like this – and I’m not sure anything can be read into the market support this morning (which I certainly encouraged – even if I didn’t start !).

The market close to the off is likely to be far more prophetic – but it’s obviously impossible to tip at that point…

In terms of the case for Tinos Tank, then it is based around his 3 most recent runs in decent Beginners chases.

He’s shown progressively better form in each of them – looking last time, as if he might be able to ruffle up horses rated over a stone superior to him.

He switches to handicap company this afternoon – and whilst his opening mark of 119 looks about right based on his hurdles form, it could significantly under-estimate his chasing ability.

We’ll find out this afternoon – but fingers crossed I’ve read things right !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Sand 1:20 Chef D’Equipe 1pt win 9/1

Sand 1:20 Little Jon 0.5pt win 9/1

Sand 3:00 Cloudy Too 1.5pt win 17/2

Chep 2:45 Chef D’Oeuvre 1pt win 6/1

Cork 3:05 Tinos Tank 1pt win 11/2

Mentions

Sand 12:45 Angels Antics (P )

Sand 3:35 Our Merlin (S )

Chep 1:35 Famous Milly (S )