Overview
As always, I’ll begin the season review with the headline figures:
For
the 2017-18 season (Nov 1st – Apr 14st) a total of 193
tips were issued across 156 races, with 178.5pts staked.
If
you had managed to secure the price advised in the tips email, then you would
have achieved a profit of 77.78pts (43.5% ROI).
It’s
always a bit tricky knowing what a ‘fair’ price is, when I’m working out the
figures: however, I only quote prices available with the main bookmakers – and I
issue at times when they should be prepared to take a bet.
Whilst not everyone will have achieved these figures –
most should have got close – and some may even have bettered them !
That
statement is backed up by the fact that the figures for the season judged at
BSP, are very similar to those at advised prices.
If
you had taken BSP, to advised stakes, on all of the tips, then before
commission, you would have made a profit of 73.19pts (41% ROI).
Obviously, a single figure doesn’t tell the whole story –
and there was some variance in the prices of a number of the tips (the advised
price was slightly better for most – but the BSP was significantly better for a
few).
The bottom line however, is that if BSP had been taken,
profits for the season would have been virtually the same as at advised price
(which is certainly food for thought).
Tips Analysis
Although of questionable value, I like to monitor how the
tips perform in terms of finishing positions (it helps give me a feel for
whether the tips were particularly ‘lucky’ - or ‘unlucky’).
During the season, the following placings were
achieved:
1st – 23
2nd – 21
3rd – 19
4th – 21
The
consistent spread across the placings, suggests that the impact of luck was
minimal (maybe slightly lucky).
Almost 23% of the selections finished first or second,
which is close to my target of 25%.
Similarly just over 43% of selections finished in the
first 4 – which again, is close to my target of 50%.
The
numbers were probably slightly down on target, because Big races, tend to mean
bigger fields – so getting placed is harder !
Another measure of ‘luck’ that I use, is how many of the
tips that traded at 2.1 or less, subsequently went on to win the
race.
This
season, there were 42 horses traded at 2.1 or less (all of them actually traded
at 2 or less).
23
of these won – 2 more than would have been expected with ‘average’
luck.
The
suggestion again, is that the tips were slightly lucky during the season (though
not as lucky, as they were unlucky last season !).
I
didn’t feel they had much luck in the final month of the season - but in truth,
up until that point, I couldn’t have complained.
In
terms of the races that I tipped in: then 30 of the 193 tips were in races run
in Ireland - and they yielded a profit
of 31.5pts (thanks mainly to Outlander and Tower Bridge !)
I
doubt that will surprise many of you – as you all know how keen I am on the
Irish racing !
Of
the remaining 163 tips: 80 were in class 1 races (almost half) – with 44 in
class 2; 37 in class 3 and just 2 in class 4.
I
think this helps explain why the prices generally stood up so well (because most
of the tips were in races with strong markets).
Interestingly, if you ignore the ante-post tips – and
ones at the big spring festivals (Cheltenham in particular), then there were
very few tips which crashed in price.
Ellens Way (which was one of the 2 tips in class 4 races)
and Kris Spin, were the only winning tips, whose advised price was more than 50%
greater than the eventual BSP.
If
your profits didn’t come up to scratch this season, then it was probably because
you missed the early price – but also, didn’t wait for the subsequent drift
!
Timing can often be key !
Generally, whilst it is true that some of the tips
shorten in price just after issue, many of them do drift back out to the advised
price - or even beyond – which is something that is worth bearing in
mind...
Changes to the service scope (including the new midweek blog)
As
you are all aware, this was the first season where the service has focused
solely on ‘Big races’.
The
change was in response to the issues associated with trying to tip in small
races, which came to a head last season.
I
personally feel that the change was a great success, as it gave me the space to
better focus on the races where we could actually place a bet.
It
doesn’t surprise me that the end result was a greatly improve bottom line – and
I don’t intend to make any change to the Main service scope for next season
!
The
midweek blog was a product of the change in scope – and I’m undecided as to how
successful that was (the survey didn’t help much in removing the uncertainty
!)
From
my perspective; then it wasn’t too much of an issue finding the time to post on
the blog – and I liked the fact that I didn’t feel compelled to post on any day
(even if things got a bit silly towards the end of the season, when the bad
weather decimated the mid week fixtures).
I
liked the fact that I could just offer an opinion - rather than having to find
tips – and I know that some people found it useful/entertaining. However, I
don’t know exactly how many…
My
feeling is that around 50 people read the blog, most days: about 30 Main service
subscribers – plus about 20 others.
I
was hoping that the blog might provide a source of new subscribers (with
slightly different profiles) – but so far this hasn’t happened !
Maybe it’s a slow burner…
My
current feeling is that the blog should continue in roughly its existing format,
for at least another season.
It’s
not a tipping vehicle (for a variety of reasons) – so there still won’t be any
tips.
However, I may broaden the Lunchtime Nap concept and give
more selections (possibly with star ratings).
I won’t maintain a P&L for them though – so it will be up to individuals to decide whether they can use the information to help make a profit…
I won’t maintain a P&L for them though – so it will be up to individuals to decide whether they can use the information to help make a profit…
The Forum
The
TVB forum completed its third season – but in terms of popularity, it’s a bit
like the blog !
Some
people love it – and some just aren’t interested…
Personally, I think it is a valuable resource – though it
obviously needs individuals to input, in order for that to be the
case.
The
likes of Chris, Francis, Neil, Dave, Gags, Paul and Steve, regularly do just
that – and hopefully get plenty out of it.
I
also know that quite a few of you appreciate their input – even if that’s rarely
explicitly stated !
Undoubtedly the most valuable thing to come out of the
forum in the past 12 months, has been Chris’s System bets.
In a
show of rare diligence and determination, Chris has taken a seed of an idea and
produced a System which has recorded outstanding profits for 6 consecutive
months (I’ll gloss over this month – though there are still a few days in which
things could be turned around !)
The
really impressive aspect of Chris system is that has been profitable, betting
either late morning – or at BSP.
For
many of you, that should be gold dust – and Chris and I will be getting results
proofed by the SBC over the next 6 months, with a view to offering it as a
subscription option for the new TVB season.
More
on that in October (hopefully !)
Survey results
Firstly, a quick thank you to everyone who completed the
TVB survey.
It
got a much higher response level than I expected, with over 80% of you taking
the time to answer.
As s
result, I do feel I have a view that can be relied upon.
The
only issue is, there is quiet a lot of contradiction in the detail – but I guess
that’s understandable (as the TVB service offers so many options !)
One
thing that virtually everyone agreed on (98%), is that the change in focus to
Big races, was the right move.
In
truth, that was the main question in the survey – and with the P&L bottom
line supporting it as well, I can categorically state, that won’t change next
season !
In
terms of the suitability of the tipping windows, then as you would expect, most
people had a view on when was best – but they weren’t all in agreement
!
Some
don’t like the day before; some don’t like early morning; some don’t like late
morning !
However, with just over 70% happy with the day before and
late morning – and nearly 90% happy with early morning, it’s another thing which
is unlikely to change.
As
you all know, I only issue tips when I think you should be able to get on (so
the race is priced up and the market relatively stable).
I
like to issue them as early as I can, because it makes producing the write-up
easier for me, if I know where I stand, tips-wise.
The
fact that the prices have generally stood up, should mean that the time the tips
are issued, isn’t really that important.
Hopefully, the BSP figures will give more of you
confidence, that if you miss a particular price, there’s a fair chance it will
re-appear closer to the off.
In
terms of the write-ups: then most of you (95%) seem happy with it (as you would
expect, after 6 seasons !).
There will always be tweaks I could make – but I also need to make the process of producing the write-up, as simple as possible (as it generally takes me 2-3 hours).
There will always be tweaks I could make – but I also need to make the process of producing the write-up, as simple as possible (as it generally takes me 2-3 hours).
It’s
also pleasing to see that most of you (90%) back some of the Mentions (hopefully
not all of the Mentions !); whilst half of you back savers – and a quarter of
you look for in running plays.
These are the areas where the write-up will hopefully
continue to provide added value, compared to most other services.
As
I’ve already said, about 30 of you use the forum (at least occasionally !); and
whilst Chris’s System bet thread is understandably the most popular offering;
Dave’s Naps competition, Steve’s Pricewise thread – and my eye catcher thread,
all have their followers.
There’s always scope for another sub forum or two though
- if any of you have any good ideas !
The
midweek blog, was the area where it was most difficult for me to reach any
conclusions from the survey.
About half of you seem to use it: with a third using it
regularly to find bets; a third using it sometimes to find bets – and a third
never using it as a bet source !
The
general format (evening preview, lunchtime update, review) got a positive
response – but there was a split in terms of whether there should be a Lunchtime
nap.
Possibly the most interesting question concerned whether
you were happy that the blog is available to non-subscribers.
Over
70% of you were comfortable with this – acknowledging its potential value to me
as a marketing tool.
As
I’ve already said, there will be no explicit tips on the blog, so people can
really only use the content as a guide.
Overall, I was very happy with response to the
survey.
I’ve
emailed everyone who commented on any of the questions - hopefully providing a
satisfactory response to any points made !
I
will certainly look to repeat the exercise, in 12 months time…
Conclusions and next season
Usually, when I reach this point, I’m full of suggested
improvements for next season – but that’s not the case this time…
Generally, the season went exceptionally well – aside
from the final month (when I feel the dreadful weather messed things
up).
I’ve
continually evolved the service over the past 5 years – and whilst I would never
think I’ve cracked it – I am probably as close to where I wanted to get, as I
will ever be…
I
will look to tweak the mid week blog next season – but the changes to the Main
service will be minimal.
Hopefully the biggest change will be the introduction of
a System bet subscription option, which will hopefully suit quite a few of
you…
As
always, I would like to thank you all for your support over the past 6
months.
Particular thanks need to go to Chris, Francis, Dave and
Steve for their efforts in driving threads on the forum.
If I
can find a bit of time (and the racing is up to scratch !) then I will make the
occasional post over the summer, on the blog (and advise via the forum and
Twitter, as now).
Otherwise, expect me to get back in touch at the
beginning of October, with the plans for the 2018-19 season !
Wishing you all a great summer !
TVB.
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